http://research.cs.wisc.edu/vertical/papers/2013/hpca13-isa-...
Yes, ARM architecture is simpler so AMD might stand a better chance, but I'm not so sure how they'll manage to make ARM cores reach x86-level performance and per-cycle efficiency. Currently in cross-architecture benchmarks like SPEC (which doesn't seem to have any ARMs in it at the moment -- hopefully this will change), x86 is at the top for per-thread, per-clock performance and at least a factor of 2-3 away from the next-best - which was POWER7, if I remember correctly.
And given that x86 has tons of intra-instruction optimisation opportunities that Intel are taking advantage of because it's such a rich CISC, and ARM doesn't ("enhanced REP MOVSB" is the first example that comes to mind)... personally, I'm not too optimistic. Either way it will be really interesting to see what happens, particularly the benchmarks.