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The piece starts out by very nicely warning us about the THREE HUGE OUTLIERS but then, surprisingly, doesn't take them out of the remaining analysis. (Well, they sort of do in the "founders that didn't win" part).

Would be useful & interesting to see the bulleted stats list in the first paragraph with averages & medians (with and without the 3 big successes).

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Yes, unfortunately the data is most solid on the successes because their valuations are public information whereas the figures are more shakey with the smaller companies, and creating an estimate that subtracts the outliers is pretty flimsy.

Our best guess is that 78% of the earnings are in the top three companies gives a general idea of the kind of adjustment you'd have to make.

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