WWDC 2014 Prelude

When Apple was putting together the iTunes music store, Steve Jobs bought a condo overlooking Central Park in Manhattan. He had no intention of moving from his home in California, but he knew that he would need a place to wine-and-dine the record label executives, and even the penthouse at the Ritz wouldn't cut it.

I don't think people really appreciate how much Jobs "got" the entertainment industry. He knew not only how to work with, and negotiate with, entertainment industry executives, but he was also the head of a ridiculously successful movie studio himself.

Apple without Jobs doesn't have to worry about design, as Ive's team has that (mostly) under control, they don't have to worry about marketing, as Schiller is still one of the best at what he does, and they definitely don't have to worry about operations with Cook at the helm. What Apple without Jobs is still missing (if they still care about being in your living room) is someone who really understands the entertainment industry.

In turn, I expect there to be the usual major backlash that Apple did not release a unicorn Dick Tracy watch from the future. Many folks will say that Nike, Fitbit, etc, already did this. But Apple's will be better designed and incredibly tightly integrated. There will also probably be some genuine novel parts to it, most likely around recharging (solar/wireless? Never take it off?) and the ability for the person to customize how the device looks. There will probably also be a few other applications beyond fitness and health. (Payments?) Ultimately I'd guess it will eventually be worn by most folks who buy the latest Apple phones. I expect it to be relatively cheap compared to most new Apple products, prob $149 or something. When iPhone 6 hits you'll probably be able to buy one for $99 or something when you buy the phone.

And that's why these predictions worry me. If you do the mental equivalent of zooming out, these predictions seem to focus on two things:

1. Centralizing storage of user-generated content.

2. Catering to consumers instead of professionals.

The vast majority of Apple's value captured (AKA revenue) is from consumer products: iPads, iPhones, iPods. But much of the value created by Apple products comes from professionals. Artists, programmers, writers; countless creative professionals use Apple hardware and software in their work. If Apple focuses on consumers, it will almost certainly be to the detriment of professionals.

I love my MacBook Air, but I can see Apple's trajectory. I can see my laptop becoming a locked-down Duplo version of itself. Then I'll be forced to switch to something else, and my knowledge and experience of OS X will become worthless. More importantly, many other professionals would be in the same boat. Millions could be stymied and frustrated by these changes.

http://www.betaarchive.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=31454

"I’d rather use an iPhone that can’t make phone calls than use one with a broken camera."

It's very true IMHO, but having an "free" iCloud means that apple should face a very high bill for this.

I think that the next big thing is the phone-camera, so I expect that in future we will see a run for more (u)megapixels if not raw formats... and that like for HD video doesn't play well with the cost curve. They probably can do like for G+ or similar that the jpg 80% is free the 100% is limited. We'll see.

However, can't wait for OSX ten ten! I expect big things for it.

It just seems so overdue.

I hope not - I actually prefer it to Lightroom. Then again, it has been a while since an Aperture update...

From that perspective, the Beats acquisition could be considered cheap. Comparable brands for a streaming-music service would have been Pandora or Spotify. But either would have cost more than $4 billion and neither would have come with a profitable headphone business.