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Or that successful criminals are like unicorns ;-).

Nah. I'm not aware of the statistics for unsolved violent crime (it's certainly not zero), but the ongoing drug trade is a pretty good example itself.

Not just anyone can manufacture MDMA or LSD. There's the occasional bust, but clearly smart people are getting away with it.

MDMA is a lot easier than LSD, and dumb people get away with just selling Meth (even easier) as MDMA. But ok, maybe some people get away with making synthetic chemicals for some period of time. I don't know that it's necessarily the same people, as opposed to an unending supply of people willing to join the illegal trade. shrug

I expect long-term expected returns of the drug trade are negative, but people aren't good at evaluating risk.

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