Yes, that appears to be a mistake. In the 36.8% of cases where the best candidate shows up in that first 36.8%, it would seem the algorithm must keep running until it is forced to select the final candidate, which is essentially a random choice out of all but the very best (assuming ordering has no relation to goodness) -- very different from being "stuck with the second best." However, the rest of the quote -- "but still, if you like favorable odds, this is the best way to go." -- might very well be true.