Yeah, pretty much.
Combine offshoring with the baffling obsession some programmers have with teaching EVERYONE their trade and you can expect compensation levels to plummet in the coming years.
The "baffling" obsession might come from the fact that many programmers realize that basic programming knowledge is the coming equivalent of literacy. And that they'd never be in the position they're in now if generations of CS people hadn't freely shared what they learned.
I could just as easily envision an army of cheap, self-taught "programmers" making applications held together with spit and glue and causing a race to the bottom in the industry (see the residential construction industry for an example of this).