Isn't the case still undecided?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoglia/2014/04/12/faa-files-...
But even more generally, I should have said the FAA has no clear legal authority to regulate small unmanned aircraft. The FAA obviously claims that it does have certain legal abilities, and points to certain laws to argue their case [0].
[0] http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/2014-06-23/faa-claims...
http://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId...
Definitely agree with your second point - according to most observers, the FAA's authority to regulate small (model-sized) UAVs is tenuous at best. They're generally not expected to win their appeal.
However, the FAA's rulemaking abilities are limited by the Administrative Procedure Act (APA) and they haven't made any yet.
So, even if the FAA's appeal fails, there will be a very short window (probably a year or less) before drones are explicitly regulated on less shaky footing.
So claims the FAA. I can't make my way through the text of the law, nor can I find any legal summary or analysis other than the FAA's own claim that it gives them the authority to regulate UAS.
I find the FAA's attempt at banning anything commercial relating to drones a bit curious.
Step 1. Ban/regulate all commercial Drones.
Step 2. Require a license for commercial use.
Step 3. Profit?
This looks more like a move to kill an industry before it takes off if you pardon my pun.
Not to mention there's nothing to regulate at the moment no people have been hurt by drones and there's very few companies actually looking into them.
So the next logical question is who would loose money if commercial drone delivery services become the norm?
Really? How about people hitting baseballs with bats unregulated? That's a heck of a lot more dangerous than most hobbyist drones, perhaps unless you're deliberately trying to do harm (in which case regulations don't matter).
I suspect the true difficult technical challenge here will be upgrading the planes and airports to handle hundreds of little drones flying around, with the legal framework to follow.