Comment by tsuyoshi | Hacker News Reader

Comment by tsuyoshi | Hacker News Reader

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I think there's something else going on there though...

South Korea (per capita GDP $24k) is hardly the only success story in that part of the world. Japan ($38k), Hong Kong ($38k), Singapore ($55k), and Taiwan ($20k) have basically pulled off the same trick. All these places have in common that they are either Chinese (mostly Chinese, in Singapore's case) or very closely related culturally to China (Korea and Japan are more closely related to China than, for example, Laos or Myanmar). They are all small, without huge agricultural potential or much other resources, but with good access to the sea.

A more recent, and possibly more relevant example is Malaysia ($11k). Malaysia is an interesting case. It is majority Muslim, but it has a significant non-Muslim Chinese minority that controls most of the economy. It is a large petroleum exporter, but it has successfully expanded to manufacturing and services, arguably escaping the "resource curse".

You might be tempted to conclude that Malaysia pulled this off because of their Chinese population (and I know some Malays have said exactly this), but there are counterexamples to this - Thailand ($6k), Indonesia ($4k), Vietnam ($2k) and Cambodia ($1k) all have significant ethnic Chinese populations. On the other hand, ethnic Chinese control business in all those countries far out of proportion to their share of the population.

What useful lessons Arabs can draw from this I have no idea. Well, I have some idea: just look at North Korea ($0.6k) and Vietnam ($2k). The lesson isn't just simply "communism is bad" though, because they are well behind Russia ($15k) and even Cuba ($6k).

Sure, the Asian tigers. There's some ideas that float around that various Confucian "values" contributed to this surge, hard work, education etc. But all those places were Confucian long before they became successful. The other thing they all have in common is deep support from a more powerful country.

- South Korea had some colonial development under Japan, and the U.S. support post WW2 and the Korean War made up to 1/5th of the country's GDP during some periods, nearly all of the Government budget and 100% of the military budget for quite some time. Favorable investment and borrowing and an open U.S. export market were instrumental to the modern success it is today.

- Japan was well on its way to being a major economic power before WWII, and significant support from the U.S. helped it rebuild after the war. Again, Favorable borrowing, investment and an open U.S. export market were helpful.

- Taiwan was a model Japanese colony before WW2 and received significant support from the U.S. after the establishment of the ROC. Significant U.S. support of the ROC military, aid and favorable borrowing and open markets.

- Singapore and Hong Kong have similar histories of British support, but towards trade and finance centers rather than export driven economies.

- Maylasia is a fascinating, formerly under British rule, has had stellar growth since independence in 1957, and has just started moving towards a similar growth model that Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have enjoyed. It also has the Chinese "Bamboo Network" to tap into (which explains the dominance of the Chinese minority in the economy). It's also offering Islamic alternatives to Western finance for Muslim countries.

I think people blame religion far too quickly in these issues because it frequently arises as a symptom of some larger issue rather than a strict cause. I think what the Arabs need is a Park Chung-hee, distasteful in the short run, but providing for a solid economic foundation while keeping idle hands busy in the interim. Instead it's just sectarian brutal dictator after brutal dictator. Malevolence instead of Benevolence.

Maybe there is something in the East/South-East Asian cultural makeup that gives a better chance for a Benevolent(-ish) dictator to take charge for a while? I don't know, and again, I think that's over simplifying things for a bit and unfair to the Arab people.

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