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Comment by Shivetya | Hacker News Reader

Okay, but when does the factory first come online? The projections are for by 2020, so where do any possible cost savings for the III come from? Unless we can expect it to slip a few more years like the X did.

I am hoping for a 200 mile range mid size, but I doubt Tesla will be first. I am also expecting range extender vehicles to have much more popularity initially because to be honest, I don't have time for 30 minute charge cycles when I am on trip and most people I know just want to get to their destination.

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I think pushing the mainstream launches back would be a wise decision. They've just begun their hard knock education in designing for longevity and reliability with the earliest examples of the Model S passing the 2 year mark.

Traditional auto manufacturers have decades of experience driving the continual refinement of their designs. These efforts have resulted a general expectation among consumers of unfailing reliability and service life measured in decades. The issues they're experiencing with drive units are troubling but acceptable for most owners who know they bought a bleeding-edge testbed for future technology. My concern is one of time, things move relatively slow in the world of automotive engineering and these issues show Tesla has a lot to learn and a lot to change once they've discovered the points of failure. That kind of time doesn't fit with their expected release schedule and owners won't accept the kinds of failure rates experienced in the Model S in a mass market car.

2020 is the estimate for full scale production at max capacity, not the estimate for when it will first come on line.

I have been driving the 80 mile "real range" Leaf for three years and it gets me to work and back without recharging. Because it charges when parked, I experience zero charge time.

If you are single without family (so only one car) and travel with car a lot (skiing in state or whatever) then the current electrics aren't for you. But you are in a minority part of society (although probably over-represented on H N :-)

> Okay, but when does the factory first come online? The projections are for by 2020, so where do any possible cost savings for the III come from? Unless we can expect it to slip a few more years like the X did.

Tesla has already broken ground in several states for the Gigafactory (with plans to discard the sites they choose not to move forward with). I think 18-24 months is a reasonable timeline for them to be online.

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