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Right now, the laws of economics are a bigger problem than the laws of physics. Field effect transistors have been shown to work 5nm and even 3nm. However, the new lithography technologies needed to reach those resolutions cheaply are nowhere near ready.

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I heard a rule of thumb that fab costs go up about 40% with each reduction in size. Is that accurate?

Intel paid ASML ~$4.1 billion to deliver 10nm lithography. That was ~ 1.5yrs ago (http://www.intc.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=690165). ASML stock is a good indicator what's happening in this business.

Intel has running 14nm which is 16% better on SRAM cell than 16nm TSMC.

> Right now, the laws of economics are a bigger problem than the laws of physics.

The "laws of economics" and the "law of physics" are two sides of the same coin in this case.

It's the laws of physics that prevents us from producing arbitrarily cheap chips, it's not two separate factors.

The "laws of physics" are our hurdles, and the more we pass the cheaper the chips get.

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