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Comment by minimaxir | Hacker News Reader

This confuses correlation and causation. Getting to #1 of any link aggregator is pure luck and there's no way to game it. Many site with the same production values as the OP's are submitted every day yet get no votes.

Staying at #1 for an extended period of time is a related but slightly different story.

That being said, the massive decline after the spike is a good example why getting to the top of HN isn't a make-or-break event for startups.

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>> Getting to #1 of any link aggregator is pure luck

I disagree. There is luck involved but you can increase your chances. e.g. the time at which you post is important. Is anyone on the site or are they in bed?

I will admit that logic is not incorrect because I was the one who made that very claim: http://minimaxir.com/img/hn-front-page.png

The variation, however, is minimal between the timeslots. That image didn't also look into the game-theoric implications of other successful posts during that time.

So it dosent matter if product is viral, unique and possibly game changing? Is becoming successfully also pure luck? What else in your opinion is pure luck?

I agree that some submissions are lucky to get to the top. But stating most submissions or all of them is just luck is just nonsense.

"Viral and game-changing" is only determined in hindsight, not in a Show HN.

I agree. I have seen links top rated with questionable, even old and outdated content. Once it's in the upper ranks it seems to attract the sheep crowd - commenting and then the prophecy starts fulfilling itself... ;-)

> Getting to #1 of any link aggregator is pure luck

Then you could submit a random page every millisecond and be on #1 with one of them all the time.

Wouldn't you be banned before you got to number #1?

That's insane, I would describe getting to the top of a news aggregator as almost zero luck. Great product, great marketing, #1 no problem.

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