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> IMHO it is quite easy to make a reliable estimation of well-planned project.

Evidence suggests otherwise. Sure you can estimate +/- 100-200% early on but that isn't what anyone is aiming for in a software project. Even detailed plans of repeatable (non-trivial) software projects do not result error bars that anyone really desires.

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I don't know that I'd say it's easy, but it is certainly possible. The big takeaway from the article that I agree with is that historical data significantly improves estimates. If you know that e.g., the last 5 projects took an average of x weeks on the authentication layer, then it's likely that your project will take somewhere around the same time.

The problem is that most companies don't record this data. Start today!

You missed the second part: "However ...". :)

My point was that it is the planning step that is extremely difficult, not the estimating one. With most real-world projects the project plan must follow changing requirements (based on external input or on things you have learned during development). It is extremely unlikely that the original plan will (or should) be followed to the end.

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