> Smaller nations sounds nice but in the intermediate term reality Scotland would become a minor province of the EU nation.
If it's admitted at all, which is far from certain.
If it's admitted at all, which is far from certain.
I don't see why it would not be admitted. The EU is not in the habit of turning down that kind of country: wealthy, peaceful, of Christian heritage and adjoining several EU countries.
And if you want to play that game, it's not certain that England will remain in the EU. An independent Scotland could well end up the only part of Britain left in the EU. Yes that would be a crashingly stupid thing for Britain to collectively do. But it's not impossible.
Inability to come to mutually agreeable terms -- Scotlands wants (1) essentially automatic admission without the normal new state process, and (2) to keep the UK's special exemption for using the sterling, and (3) to get part of the UK's rebates.
AFAICT, much of the rest of the EU is opposed to all three of those. Spain is particularly opposed to the first (and possibly to Scottish admission at all), because an independent Scotland getting into the EU, especially on fast-track process, is seen as encouraging Catalonian independence.
> The EU is not in the habit of turning down that kind of country: wealthy, peaceful, of Christian heritage and adjoining several EU countries.
First, I think you are considering the wrong category: the category of interest is "states having recently broken away from existing EU member-states", particularly as the UK isn't the only EU member with regions that have some pro-independence sentiments, and admitting such a breakaway state is something that states that have their own aspiring breakaway regions are likely to see as providing encouragement to those breakaway regions.
Also, an independent Scotland would be adjoining exactly one other country (the UK), and one of the reasons that seems to keep being cited for it leaving is that, even with Scotland still in the UK and exerting pro-EU pressure, the future of the UK in the EU is locally considered less than certain, so I'm not sure where you get that "adjoining several EU countries" is a fair description.
> And if you want to play that game, it's not certain that England will remain in the EU.
Of course its not; I don't dispute that at all.
For certain values of adjoining. They have been making common cause with the nearby Nordic countries. I was going to add Ireland but only the UK part of it is actually visible from Scotland. Carndonagh, Republic of Ireland to Port Ellen, Islay is only 50 miles as the crow flies. There's EU to be found to due East, West and South of Scotland; you can't say that it's not in-amongst the EU.
The "no fast track" argument is I think one of those "will be settled in a few years anyway" arguments that cstross dismisses; there is a plan b to the fast track and it is the regular track.
The argument about the dangers of breakaways regions to other EU states is something that bears watching; it remains to be seen how strong it is in Brussels.
Spain for instance would I'm sure be very interested in the fisheries policies in Scottish waters, something to buy off the Catalans. Belgium (another country with worries about secession movements) might have something to say about Anglo-Saxon capitalism, France certainly will. Germany will want to be strict about budget deficits.
Other countries have agendas that don't perfectly align to Scotland's. They have what we want, and Scotland would have a deadline, that isn't the best position in the world to negotiate from.
If you care about independence at (almost) any price then it shouldn't matter, but it is clear the SNP don't believe a majority of voters do.