Why Scotland looks like the canary in the independence coal mine
blogs.reuters.com
blogs.reuters.com
I hear the UK say, "If you stay with us, we promise to give you more power!" Well, why don't you go ahead and give it NOW, and that would probably swing Scotland to a firm "No". Which makes me think the UK is lying, and Scotland would get no substantial improvement in autonomy.
Also the UK is a single landmass , so it makes sense to defend it as such.
1. This is great, throwing it back to government for the people and really should shake up big federal governments.
2. Or maybe not so great, because of number of pitfalls. Getting something like secession right is hard, chances are economies will suffer hard. There will be some superpowers that will never allow this is current political climate such as China, Russia, and potentially India. This will be effectively strengthening their positions. If countries split up into smaller states, while local governance will likely improve, international gridlock will not.
Given the stream of world political and business leaders who have felt the need to pass comment (inevitably in favour of the "No" campaign) I really do wonder what is going on.
[NB OK OK I shouldn't have said "minor economic power" and the UK has superb (but horribly equipped and under-funded) armed forces].
A very interesting article on the UK's "independent" deterrent by Charlie Stross can be found at:
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2013/04/on-the-u...
We are anticipating what will happen if "yes" succeeds and what that means to Scotland (and its economy). World leaders do not want successfully countries with desirable/friendly leaders to break up.
My music teacher at secondary school (a staunch SNP supporter) spent a significant amount of time teaching us songs about a war 700 years ago (NB guess why the referendum is in 2014?).
Personally, I would forget the Declaration of Arbroath, no matter how stirring it may be, and focus on the Declaration of Calton Hill which is all about a better future:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_Calton_Hill
[Ignore its origins with the SSP - entertaining bunch of lunatics though they are].
In the long run, about as much as Ireland. This is not the first piece of land the British Empire has lost. Not uncharted territory at all.
Either way most people in the US know about some of them. Thats why I chose to say: "Insert Braveheart reference here" instead of "It's all for nothing if you don't have freedom."
...for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom – for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_Arbroath
Which, as an aside, has some quite interesting stuff about sacking a King if he isn't good at his job...
[NB This has no real relevance to the current referendum - but I'd be lying if I didn't admit to liking this kind of stuff.]
[NB Doesn't matter what a bank economist or business leader says, they aren't going to change my vote.]
It was a huge fad across all the infotainment sites about three or four weeks ago.
The UK isn't some pauper state where everyone's living on the breadline, we just take a different approach to the USA.
[edit] replaced GDP with PPP for better clarity/relevance.
The UK's GDP is substantially bigger than that of any state of the US. (UK: about $2.5T; California: about $1.9T.)
The innumerable articles on the topic seem to miss the point that its not necessarily a poverty thing as a quality of living thing.
Poverty in the USA means poor health and very high crime and awful living conditions. And there's a cultural correlation with trash blowing around in the streets and run down buildings. I've spent some time in Ireland (I don't like on the US coasts so I can afford international travel) and poverty in Ireland merely means they can't afford luxuries. I never really found a slum in my wanderings of Galway and Dublin but all US cities have slums.
I have also spent time in Huntsville Alabama, mostly in the neighboring military base, decades ago. I can hear the coasties snickering already, but its really quite nice other than the humidity. So Britain being as poor as the deep south really isn't all that bad.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Voices/2014/...
It's actually quite an interesting thought exercise to contrive as many reasons as you can why the information presented there is pretty much meaningless.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/mar/westminster-ad...
If true, this would certainly explain why people with no conceivable direct interest in the constitutional settlement of the British Isles (Vladimir Putin, anyone? Tony Abbot?) have been speaking out strongly against the independence campaign: it costs nothing and keeps the British ambassador's boss happy.
I favor the No campaign because I favor federalism, in general - though as someone who grew up in Ireland, I can also empathize with the desire for a separate national identity. Overall, though, the practical freedom of being able to cross borders without having to account for one's movements or accept inequitable monetary transactions is a far more valuable liberty than nominal participation in some abstract sovereignty. I have my doubts about whether Irish independence from the UK was really advantageous and feel that my European citizenship - nebulous though European political identity may be - is of far greater value than my Irish citizenship.
As far as Scotland in particular is concerned, I think independence is a very mixed blessing - whether or not I'm right about the long-term value in the short term I would anticipate a period of vicious factional politicking.
I didn't say we shouldn't. I think that is ultimately the direction we should be aiming towards. True democracy, where the people decide.
The US does not allow states to secede. Guam or Puerto Rica may have better chances though...
From wikipedia:
"In Texas v. White, the United States Supreme Court ruled unilateral secession unconstitutional, while commenting that revolution or consent of the states could lead to a successful secession."
The constitution could be amended to explicitly allow this but I don't foresee that happening anytime soon. So yes, the US is firmly in #2.
Independence, Independence with a currency union, further devolution, the current status quo and what it was like a decade ago are all points on a spectrum rather than a black and white thing.
There is certainly a spectrum of different levels of devolution, but make no mistake: there is a massive chasm at the point of actual independence. It changes everything.
It does still baffle me, though, that economic conservatism is seen as a force for the poor in America, whereas elsewhere in the world, in this article's words, evoking "socialist utopia... [is] an effort to stave off the spiraling growth of inequality."
Historically, Americans have been more fiercely independent and valued bottom up approaches to resolving their problems. A lot of the rest of the world is more hive-minded and looking for top-down solutions.
I thought that hive-minded accurately described the seeming desire to centralize authority and form a collective, trusting that those in charge had the best interests of society in mind.
edit: I don't understand how I could missed it but the article does mention the flemish region and Catalonia (I wish they would have compared it though).
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/09/the-refe...
I think 9-11 sort of put a spike in the wheels of that discussion for a while for various complicated reasons, but in the meantime the forces have marched on and aren't getting any less compelling, while in the meantime confidence in big institutions is low and still dropping.
Even as right now in the US it looks like the forces of centralization are riding strong, given how poorly performing they have been and how people are ever-more increasingly distrustful of the central government, I would be very unsurprised to see 2016's Presidential election turn into a big "state's rights" fight, or some other narrative fundamentally about solving things with further centralization vs. decentralization, with the centralization party riding into very strong headwinds by 2016. If not 2016 than I think very likely by 2020.
One thing I sort of find interesting about this is that the US has a very, very clear structural path back to decentralizing itself without requiring any major upset. It's something that can be done cleanly and gradually, without revolution or uprising. Perhaps the US will decline in the 21st century, but I do not find it as inevitable as some people do.
"“I think there is going to be double, triple, quadruple countries in the coming years,” Andreessen told Sarah Lacy at Thursday night’s PandoMonthly in San Francisco.
The cofounder of venture firm Andreessen Horowitz noted that the borders of today’s countries are in some cases arbitrary, pointing to Iraq, Syria, and much of Africa as artificial constructs. In the last few decades, the world has seen the emergence of a litany of new countries, and he sees no reason why that splintering is going to slow down.
“You’re going to get a much larger number of countries,” he said, before noting that the proliferation of nations could be a positive force in the long term, measured by a span of 100 years or more.
“The transition is going to be very painful,” he said, “but I think ultimately it’s going to be very healthy.”
Does anyone reckon that if Scotland was to go its own way, the rather leftist government there would withdraw from prior cooperation with the NSA/GCHQ? There's already been an unofficial proposal to give asylum to Edward Snowden if the referendum passes. Or would the status quo continue, except there with Six Eyes?
http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/scots-independence/60436/sc...
Hard cash versus pollsters.
Thoughts?
Graham Sharpe of William Hill told The Guardian last week that the steadiness of the odds is partly to do with liability management, because there has already been a lot of money placed on no: "We are facing a seven-figure loss on a no vote and a six-figure win on a yes vote so we're trying to even that out…
Smaller countries means more borders where movement of goods or people can be tracked (papers please).
Smaller countries have less resources to defend themselves from multinational lawsuits enabled by free-trade agreements.
Currency seems to be a large, unanswered question -- or rather, concern -- in the Scottish initiative.
For many particularly in the developed world, globalization and its pressures, particularly economic, have made it clear to individuals that -- perhaps ironically -- it is every person, every community for oneself.
Those individuals and communities are beginning to respond.
If this trend leads to an increasing push not just for individual but also communal self-reliance, I don't see that as a bad thing, at this point.
It can cap or limit some of the current exploitation. And re-introduce some redundancy into what have apparently become very fragile and risky systems and dependencies.
A primary push should be for energy independence. Once you have that, it's much more difficult for external interests to jerk you around. And hopefully the initiative can grow and maintain a significant domestic technical sector.
There are also perils, and I'm no political nor sociological expert. But as with municipal broadband in the U.S., pushback against intellectual property excesses in many places, and a thousand other things, more in the general public are finding that, for them, "bigger" is NOT "better". Not currently. Not, increasingly, for a while, now.
Independence is one means of drawing boundaries to that "bigger" that seems to just keep squeezing them.
P.S. I'll add that I've read the OP article, now. Having done so, my comment stands unchanged.
If anything it is a reaction against greed as Scotland is substantially more left wing than England and Wales.
You can argue about which works, but the capitalists and the communists and the socialists do all claim to want the greatest wealth for the greatest number.
http://nbviewer.ipython.org/url/norvig.com/ipython/Economics...