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When you don't include short-term discouraged workers, it's easier to get better headline numbers even if the overall trend is about the same. Adding an estimate for long-term discouraged workers, it's not quite as clear that unemployment is reducing: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-chart...

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While I try to take all government-produced estimates with a grain of salt, I and many others consider ShadowStats's mysterious estimates much less reliable, due to a fairly obvious anti-government agenda and the simple infamous fact that they insist inflation is severely underreported despite not raising their subscription price in over 8 years!

You'd have to gather some data before bucketing them under "discouraged".

One side effect of Affordable Care Act is that it's possible for a 40-year-old corporate employee with savings, family and children, to leave their current job, work on new business and buy an affordable health insurance plan.

Previously lack (or low quality) of individual health plans would discourage anybody from leaving their corporate job, even if they accumulated enough savings to do it.

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