Some Ebola experts worry virus may spread more easily than assumed
latimes.com
latimes.com
As someone who has a small bit of background understanding of Ebola (that is, I read The Hot Zone, and then some follow-up texts related to it) and as someone who has an appreciation for the role that air travel would play in a pandemic, the lack of a proper travel quarantine procedure out of the affected west african countries is stupefying.
It is beyond all understanding that there is not a 21 day monitoring/quarantine period enforced for air travel out of these three affected countries.
EDIT: I have created this change.org petition which suggests what are, in my opinion, common sense travel guidelines that would avert a possible pandemic:
https://www.change.org/p/barack-obama-and-u-s-senate-and-u-s...
I really don't have any more confidence because the CDC has been saying "it will be fine" than I did when the Japanese officials said Fukushima would be fine.
Enough optimism for the morning...
I think the problem many people are having is you have governments telling everyone to quit fear mongering while at the same time they are demonstrating they haven't got a real hand on this.
http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/2ignxj/nurse_infe...
I remember plenty of recommendation and planning for H1N1, but currently I don't see anything really being implemented for Ebola in Western countries. Not sure it would have been really efficient in case of a full blown flu epidemic, but at least some things were organized.
The point was, an epidemic requires a vector that easily passes the disease, plus a delay between infection and symptoms. Ebola has only one of those.
These are people who know the risks; are trained to wash their hands; who have access to clean hot water and soap; who have gloves; and who face consequences when patients die.
And yet, even in these excellent hospital settings, on any one day about 1 in 25 people will have a hospital acquired infection.
There will certainly be Ebola patients from Africa who
come to us in the hopes of receiving treatment. And they
might even infect a few people here who may then die. But
an outbreak in Europe or North America would quickly be
brought under control. I am more worried about the many
people from India who work in trade or industry in west
Africa. It would only take one of them to become infected,
travel to India to visit relatives during the virus's
incubation period, and then, once he becomes sick, go to a
public hospital there. Doctors and nurses in India, too,
often don't wear protective gloves. They would immediately
become infected and spread the virus.
[0] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/04/ebola-zaire-pet...It's frustratingly hard to steer the course of taking it seriously while not giving anything to the over-reactors.
Ebola is probably high on a list of threats in the form of plausible terrorism. I'll be glad to be wrong. There's no shortage of it to procure. It presumably can't be detected easily. It can survive numerous transatlantic mailings for cultivation. It has about a week delay in symptoms. Short bursts of it in dense populations where people eat/interact would cause huge catastrophe in panic alone. That's one factor. Hopefully, an increased response will thwart its growth altogether and we can again see it as "zero."
BTW, I have a question for the people who are flagging the post, have you read it? It's pretty informative with past cases referenced, probability of transmission discussed based on real life observation, and so on. Good reporting overall.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/03/dr-kent-goe...
Sepkowitz: "Zero. Next question."
---
Thanks for posting the link. I wouldn't interpret what he said as only directed to Colbert. It's normal for an interviewer to place him/herself as the subject where it's understood that the implied subject is [any other person like me in this region/nation]. He's being far more than "somewhat dismissive." Even if he (oddly) were only specifically addressing Colbert by saying zero, that would be presumptuous. But that's my take.
I posted the link because you said resolute in saying the chance of Ebola spreading in the United States is "zero.". I figured it was fair for people reading that to have an easy shot at interpreting the video themselves.
There's no need to panic unless the authorities continue to downplay the seriousness of the disease, and continue to show their incompetence in handling contagious diseases.
Despite a few flare ups of panic, they did a pretty good job of getting the word out about HIV/AIDS when there was a lot of misinformation out there.
This is different for two very important reasons.
1. We just don't know how communicable Ebola is if people spend a lot of time in close proximity to an infected person.
2. Widespread access to internet "news" sources can spread misinformation extremely quickly.
They seem to be afraid to admit that there are things that they still don't know.
Honesty is the best policy.
There isn't yet any clear cause for panic, so start with that and go from there.
Nigeria's recent Ebola experience gives us hope that the best supportive care can reduce the death rate to something below 50%, they had 20 cases, 19 lab confirmed, 8 deaths. But for the time being it's still inevitably going to be very deadly, although mutations to less severe forms would be advantageous. Whereas to truly airborne would take multiple ones, we're pretty sure, and is very unlikely. Although not 0%, but real close.
That's probably where there's harm that can be done, but as this article and discussion note, we don't really know the truth now. I suppose that the currently inept internal US response could lead to people giving credence to "it transmits like the flu!" (which per the above is neither true nor likely to become so). Certainly people including ones claiming to be doctors are saying that now in "internet 'news' sources" ... are people believing that? (I and my family know too much medicine and biology for that.)
I seriously doubt we'll "panic" per se, but I wouldn't bet on idiots like Thomas Frieden remaining in charge of things like the CDC.
I was very aware of the Spanish Flu and Polio but no so much the rest.
And to say "this bad" when talking about 6,000 infections in Africa seems silly compared to most of these. 675,000 dead in USA (20 million across the globe) from Spanish Flu (my great grandfather included).
You mentioned polio of course but just because there aren't as many ready recordings doesn't mean people weren't stressed and/or panicked about these things.
[0] - http://www.healthline.com/health/worst-disease-outbreaks-his...
It was fantastic transmissible, plus its killing young healthy people is part of what made it so bad, a lot of older folk at least in the US appear to have had some immunity. However WWI wartime censorship kept a lid on greater recognition of how bad it was (it got its name because reporting on neutral Spain was allowed).
So I don't put it in the same league, and the late '50's Asian flu killed "only" around 69,800 Americans (per Wikipedia), so ... well, how many of us expect Ebola to kill that many in the country? I expect/hope sanity will prevail, that the Politically Correct will be shouted down or hounded out of office/their positions, and once we revert to the old fashioned quarantine methods the death toll will be small. But plenty will label that process as "panic" ... and if it doesn't happen, well, we may indeed see something close to well justified "panic".
"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Tom Frieden warned Saturday that imposing a travel ban to the countries known to be dealing with an Ebola outbreak could make the problem worse, as it would cut off the affected areas from receiving necessary medical aid."
But, of course, nobody anywhere has suggested a ban on travel into the affected countries. And he well knows that.
EDIT: Here is a change.org petition that I created today which I think addresses the issue of aid workers and medical transfer patients, etc.:
https://www.change.org/p/barack-obama-and-u-s-senate-and-u-s...
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2672.2010....
http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/10/06/354054915/f...
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2014/1006/Nigeria-cont...
So, while caution is always a good idea, there seems to be some practical evidence that supports the current sense of how easily (or not) ebola spreads.
edit: spelling
As a result of the spanish nurse's infection, I think health care workers need to be quarantined too just in case the protections don't work as we expected.
BTW, did you read the article about the Canadian experimental medicine that is available but not being shipped because the US exclusive distributor doesn't yet know how to handle the distribution. It is scary that a company that stands to make a huge profit, if the disease spreads to a first world country, is holding back the distribution of a cure.
The money line. Caged primates spreading ebola. They would have been physically proscribed from direct contact.
Ebola viri have been found in saliva, tears, can come from bleeding in the respiratory system, so it obviously can get airborne that way. Exactly what that means (how big are the droplets, how long do they stay in the air etc.), how significant that is as a mode of transmission (which includes iffy estimates of how many viri (virus particles) are required to make an infective dose) ... we just don't know. But with our current Ebola importation policy, it's very likely we will start to get answers to these questions....