I read Thiel’s book and he claims that the rise of human level computing intelligence is a problem for the 22nd century. Does anyone know why he thinks that it is so far off?
"The funny thing about AI is that it’s a moving target. In the seventies, someone might ask “what are the goals of AI?” And you might say, “Oh, we want a computer who can beat a chess master, or who can understand actual language speech, or who can search a whole database very quickly.” We do all that now, like face recognition. All these things that we thought were AI, we can do them. But once you do them, you don’t think of them as AI. It has this connotation of some mysterious magical component to it, but when you actually solve one of these problems, you don’t solve it using magic, you solve it using clever mathematics. It’s no longer magical. It becomes science, and then you don’t think of it as AI anymore. It’s amazing how you can speak into your phone and ask for the nearest Thai restaurant, and it will find it. This would have been called AI, but we don’t think about it like that anymore. So I think, almost by definition, we will never have AI because we’ll never achieve the goals of AI or cease to be caught up with it."
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rinL25rC8LnMTzZcGjg1axT-...
I fully expect it within 30 years simply based on the rate of progression, overall (not in the field of AI specifically).
As an Australian I always have found the term black swan amusing as all our swans are black - I would actually be shocked to see a white swan.
More seriously why do you think 30 years?
Here it is in seven quick minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uIzS1uCOcE (Note: I think he's wrong in how he thinks it will unfold, but right in thinking the doubling every year of technology, in general, will contribute to bringing it about.)
I thought Scott Aaronson had a survey of AI researchers where they were asked how long they though AGI would take but I can't find it now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravec
I don’t care what people think about when (or if) we achieve AGI, I want to know why they think a particular date. What analysis have they done to reach their conclusion?
Kurzweil is terrified of his own mortality and counting on "The Singularity" to allow him to upload his immortal ~soul~ consciousness into a computer.
That's why he's predicting a date within his lifespan.
I don’t think anyone serious thinks that sufficient computational power alone will result in AGI, but we know that we aren’t going to have it until we get to the human level computational.
The interesting question is once we have human level computational power is how long will it take to develop AGI. The evidence from problems that require more limited intelligence (say chess) is that the problem is solved soon after the required computational resources are available.
>We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’ for humanity.