Your own caching will make your webapp (or API) scale (say 2x faster or serve 15x the amount of users), but if you need your app to take some serious beating (say 100x to 400x the amount of users with minimal ttfb) because your site/app suddenly becomes flavour of the month on the Internet, then you will really need Varnish.
After seeing several Paywall and API deployments and all sorts of other advanced business logic, such as GeoIP detection or Mobile device classification, applied in the cache layer while keeping a sane and simple VCL, I am not sure your initial point is the case. The normal way to write VCL is to keep it simple.
(Yes, I am biased, but my point is still valid).