First, I know git, and not mercurial.
Second, I don't think there is a steep learning curve for the subset included in my post.
Third, I think git has enough momentum that it makes sense for beginning programmers to focus on it. I suspect Mercurial will get a lower and lower percentage of the market place over time, because programmers will generally need to learn git at some point, and once they've done so, there is less reason for them to go against the tide on their next project by learning Mercurial. (An "increasing returns" situation.) Maybe I'm wrong about this -- it's just the sense I have. But, see this chart, which I think tends to validate it: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=git%2C%20svn%2C%20hg&...