R.I.P. Good Times: One Year Later | Hacker News Reader

R.I.P. Good Times: One Year Later

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28 pointsvaksel8 comments

I know I've been reasonably immune to this, being based in Australia (where interest rates are on their way back up!), but doing some global research for a speech I have to give next week gives me mixed views about this article.

-True, much of the 'Great Depression' media was hyperbolic speculation

-But, this recession probably will be the worst since the mid 1970s, and since most businesses weren't operating with their current owners back then many mistakes are being repeated due to lack of specific experience

-Green shoots and 'good times' articles are also premature. The bounce in stock markets is only just starting to be seen in the broader economy, and we're hearing this will be followed by a drag phase and then another significant dip before really taking off again (think a W shape)

Some of my colleagues ran a similar presentation in Washington State last week, so if you search Twitter [1] you'll find plenty more thoughts and observations.

[1] http://twitter.com/search?q=%23shirlaws

They went back up yesterday. The first developed nation to officially end the recession.

But to be honest, I think the Aussie government has a relatively docile public who are more tolerant of bullshit than other nations, so Rudd can pull off stunts like this unquestioned.

I don't dispute there's a financial crisis but I've always believed this is maybe the most over reported crisis ever. I can't count the number of times I've heard "VC money is drying up." Someone ought to show those people these charts. Again, no doubt there's a financial crisis but this whole "next great depression meme" has been silly from the start.

(For an example of how silly things have gotten look in the comments for "William Blanchard". He not only claims to have heard 60% of New Yorkers are unemployed but he actually believed that number)

Perhaps, but news of "green shoots" has also been over reported for the last few months. This thing isn't over by a long shot. Great Depression II, though? Not likely. But I suspect we'll have unemployment around 10% for quite some time.

What concerns me is the question of what happens when economic growth finally does take off again. At what point will increasing demand for oil push prices into another economy-crippling super-spike?

"Over" reported is yet to be seen. Perhaps the ease of reporting today makes this one seem more pronounced than others, but I think it is also worse than any since the great depression and we still don't know if it won't be worse.

Some really depressing news today is that gold hit a record high. Many believe oil will be priced in another currency or basket of currencies. Such a move will take more wind out of America's sails. The journey isn't over.

In terms of employment, this is the worst recession in the US since WWII. Unemployment has increased by almost 6% of the labor force since the start of the recession, worse than any other postwar recession. See: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SsdKai2JmWI/AAAAAAAAGg... for a good chart.

Any look back to last year has to include the "Team Cyprus" video http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/10/10/team-cyprus-move-to-und...

<quote>Team Cyprus: Alcohol + Bad Judgement + Really Poor Timing</quote>

Edit: Note I don't agree with the quote. I think it was funny how "some" thought that people that earned money honestly, went to have fun was in Bad Judgement.

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