I think the best description of the process comes from an editor explaining why so many manuscripts fail: http://nielsenhayden.com/makinglight/archives/004641.html#00...
It's harsh, but has given me insight into how the startup world, including iPhone app startups, works.
It's that even those on top aren't winning big. Why play the lottery when the top prize is modest, and the risk is high?
Btw, if developer talent is normally distributed (talent, it seems, usually is), shouldn't developer earnings also be? I'm not a statistician but it's an interesting question..
For example, a talented chef can only serve similar amount dishes in a night as less talented chefs. But the dishes they made taste much better than those and charge more.
At the same time, a talented plumber or a talented doctors can not serve more customers or patients than a less talented plumber or doctors.
It seems when the benefit of the talent scales, the distribution of their influence is Pareto distribution. So it seems developers, musician, artists, physicists fall into this category.