Nick Bostrom on Superintelligence | Hacker News Reader

Nick Bostrom on Superintelligence

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26 pointsEconTalker7 comments

So in the vein of: "the future is already here, just not evenly distributed.." Where is this superintelligence being built now? Where do the people here think the first superintelligence come from?

Where do the people here think the first superintelligence come from?

This question is actually the topic of my masters research which will be published Summer of '15.

The top probability estimates are as follows in order of our likelihood:

1. Private for-profit company

2. State (Government/Military) laboratory

3. University laboratory

4. Open source project

5. Lone Wolf developer

These are based largely on where incentives for AGI implementation lie, where funding is most available and where activity is occurring.

Great answer! Thank you. Since you seem to really have thought about this: what would be the way we would have to know that Superintelligence had been achieved?

I can imagine a situation where someone suspects that one of these projects listed above is "superintelligent". What would be the test of that?

what would be the way we would have to know that Superintelligence had been achieved?

The AGI community hasn't agreed on a test or metric, however the best answer I have found in a study is the work of José Hernández-Orallo and his "Anytime intelligence test" [1]. Practically though, I personally think we will know once enough people are convinced, a kind of "know it when I see it" [2] situation.

[1] http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370210... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it

I would rate #5 above #4 :) - trust in lone mad geniuses.

An open source project is likely to get several mad geniuses, which is probably why it's rated higher.

Just listened to this on my way in to work. I was intrigued by the point that was made by the host that the real world is complex, and that increasing intelligence has diminishing returns. Making something a million times more intelligent than humans may only make it twice as effective. Something I hadn't thought of before.

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