This is like Kickstarter campaign. I don't believe until I see some serious things happening.
I have more fate in SpaceX or Chinese to put man on Mars then NASA.
I have more fate in SpaceX or Chinese to put man on Mars then NASA.
I really don't understand all the absolute trust in SpaceX, in terms of human exploration they have proved nothing thus far. Sending cargo to the ISS is a different thing than sending humans. Once they pull that off we can start talking about great strides they are making in human space exploration.
Otherwise it's still a risky venture that hasn't proven anything yet, the only reason to have so much faith in them is because you're over zealously infatuated with Elon Musk. Not to downplay any of his obvious success, but I still believe in seeing results in the same way you're waiting to see if NASA is going to do some "serious things". Let's hold people to same standards, shall we?
I like to think of "we" as humanity. Hence we would win, no matter which flag gets there first.
I think the thing about SpaceX is it seems like they have no ulterior motives (no one honestly thought it was going to make money, until it did), and they seem to have some chance of success.
I also think your humans to the space station mark is entirely the wrong one, they could do that today if they were willing to accept a bit more risk, and will almost certainly be able to do it in the near future. But putting humans in space isn't solving any of the hard problems. Far more interesting will be if they manage to re-use a rocket (or even first-stage) with no or minor refurbishment... as re-use is the only way they will be able to achieve their goals (paraphrasing massively from what Elon has said on numerous occasions).
Whatever Elon Musk is, he's not a complete fool.
The Chinese are motivated for nationalistic and propaganda purposes, just like the United States was in the 60s. They'll eventually get to Mars.
Elon Musk is personally motivated, and appears to be able to make the construction and launch of space vehicles commercially viable. If SpaceX doesn't get to Mars, it will at the very least push the commercial space industry to the point where a competitor can.
NASA? They're beholden to a group of self-serving fools on Capitol Hill and the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue (which changes every 4-8 years). They're subject to the whims of politicians, which can make the necessary long-term planning and execution of such an endeavor nigh impossible.
SpaceX has put exactly 0 people into orbital space at all, much less to the Moon.
China has only just made it to space and are still struggling with getting probes to the Moon.
Not to say NASA is going to be the first to Mars, but they are far and away the only ones with anything remotely resembling a track record to support it. Well, NASA and Russia, but Russia doesn't seem to be doing much in terms of pushing new programs.