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Comment by crdoconnor | Hacker News Reader

>The real mechanism whereby solar kills jobs is by making electricity more expensive

Except it does the exact opposite. The spot price of electricity in Europe and Australia has even managed to turn negative a few times thanks mostly to solar. Did coal ever do that?

The recent oil price plunge orchestrated by the Saudis was also in part recognition of this fact (as well as an attempt to punish US Shale oil producers/Iran).

Competition never drove prices up but it sure does make the dinosaurs with disrupted business models whinge very loudly in the media and lobby furiously.

P.S. Did you know that solar kills birds? Also there are unconfirmed reports that wind turbines cause health problems.

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Windows in buildings kill birds far more than just about any other thing we are responsible for. I am yet to see anyone complain about the existence of glass. - http://www.banksgroup.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/estim...

And the health concerns of wind farms seem to be more to do with being visited by people who tell you that they will make you ill, rather than just proximity. - http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/mar/15/windfarm-...

Exactly my point.

That explains why my hand is on fire.

It's a moot point because negative electricity prices reflect producing more than is necessary, the reason why it's negatively priced is because it's being generated at the wrong time (which is the stupidity of solar, it works best when there's less load)

It's easy to make negative priced electricity with coal, simply shove a tonne of coal in the burner and then try to find someone to take the load before your generators / boilers blow up.

I'm not saying coal is the future, merely that arguments about negatively priced electricity are stupid, which is why companies try to focus on baseload generation because that's where most of the generating capacity needs to be.

I strongly suspect we're going to see a shift of the power grid from demand-matching via dispatchable generation to supply-matching via dispatchable load.

High-intensity manufacturing processes, banked chilling or thermal storage, pumped and other forms of direct electrical storage, and electricity-to-fuel synthesis are all examples of dispatchable loads which can opportunistically take advantage of excess generating capacity.

It is a different paradigm.

Yup, however whether that's the future really depends on where you live, as they say the future is not even distributed.

In BC, 85% of our generating capacity already does both. We can match generation to load, or continue to store the kinetic energy, as long as it snows in the mountains we'll have big batteries for on demand generation or storage of electricity.

We also have some of the cheapest rates in the world.

What do you mean it works best when there's less load? Solar works best when the sun is shining, and that is when the demand for electricity is highest (especially in places with air conditioning).

Peak temperature lags peak solar by several hours, most energy intensive industries run 24/7, so the peak is caused often by home AC/heating which lags peak output by several hours.

>Peak temperature lags peak solar by several hours, most energy intensive industries run 24/7

Energy intensive industries were only built that way because it matches the output profile of electric grids pre-renewables. You usually had a coal or nuclear power station that delivered the same amount of electricity 24/7.

Energy intensive industries are already (in Germany at least) adapting to match their demand with the electricity spot price. There's nothing inherently that difficult about an aluminum smelter matching its highest production rates to when electricity is cheapest.

That's not really true, especially as regards aluminum.

The aluminum industry has some weird physical constraints.

Alcoa has put out some engineering-heavy white papers on what actually happens and how the price and availability of power works in that industry. I can't find them at present but they were revelatory to me.

In brief, you can't just arbitrarily turn up or down your aluminum operation. At some point the giant molten pots of aluminum freeze up and destroy your capital equipment.

>It's a moot point because negative electricity prices reflect producing more than is necessary, the reason why it's negatively priced is because it's being generated at the wrong time (which is the stupidity of solar, it works best when there's less load)

This is simply a new market reality that electricity consumers have not quite adapted to yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/molten-aluminum-lak...

... but it didn't take them long to respond.

(Efficient) markets take care of this kind of thing. They're really good at it. It's stupid to keep pretending that they don't.

The only reason why it works in Germany and not, say, in the US is because the corporations that run the grid in the US are also producers and they are more interested in milking their monopoly than actually improving their networks.

Similar to how Comcast refuses to upgrade their networks.

Here in Germany we pay about 25 euro cents/kWH for electricity, which is about 3x the price in the U.S. 6 euro cents of this is just to pay for subsidies to wind and solar producers, i.e. we pay about as much just in subsidies as you pay for generation and delivery. Worse, this subsidy is on every kWH consumed, and only about 30% of total electricity is from renewable sources. This would be destroying German industry except that they get special low-priced electricity, so it merely reduces the living standard of everyone else.

We can just continue burning coal downwind of you then. Wouldn't want to move to something more expensive.

I've been looking into that today (though solid data are hard to find). Seems that the actual generation costs are actually on par with much of Europe, but it's taxes which raise the costs significantly.

I'm in favor of raising prices of energy in general. It's not as if Germany seems to be suffering economically relative to the rest of Europe.

Sure, the spot price -that is: the wholesale price- for electricity in EU and AU might be negative, but that doesn't mean the end user pays less. Anecdote: the data centre I used to work in had a fixed kWh price for bulk electricity consumption. As far as I'm aware electricity retailers, at least in Australia, don't adjust their retail and bulk rates in accordance with the spot price. The retailers are about making money, not dispatching excess generation.

Also, very little oil is used to generate electricity. This Wikipedia article claims 5.5% of global electricity generation is from oil.[1]

Something I don't understand is why more coal and oil businesses aren't investing more in solar and wind. Perhaps they are and I'm not aware of it. Or perhaps they have a view of the market we're not privy to. BP used to manufacture solar panels, but they've wound down that operation.[2]

I'm generation source agnostic. I've read things that have made me doubt the long term viability of both solar PV and solar thermal.[3] I'm not at convinced burning coal is a good idea. Nuclear has it's problems, yet it does seem if Greenpeace got out of the way in Australia 40 years ago we could have nuclear like, say, France, and be producing one tenth the electricity related carbon emissions we do now in this country. I recently moved to Tasmania where electricity is 76%-ish hydro, but could have been higher if the Wilderness Society hadn't got in the way of the proposed Franklin River damn and hydro project, thereby halting indefinitely any new hydro electricity projects in this country. It strikes me as odd that the two strongest environmental NGOs in this country are now in a position where we can look back and, from a certain perspective, think 'Gee, that didn't really work out as intended did it.' So, ya know, I'm just confused about the whole mess. I'm fairly convinced, though, that if I keep clicking 'Like' the problem will eventually go away ;)

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation#List_of_...

2. http://www.bp.com/en/global/alternative-energy/our-businesse...

3. The first few TCASE (Thinking Critically About Sustainable Energy) blog posts here http://bravenewclimate.com/?s=tcase

Edit: punctuation. NB.

NB: Errors and omissions expected. I don't necessarily agree with anything I say or write.

>Sure, the spot price -that is: the wholesale price- for electricity in EU and AU might be negative, but that doesn't mean the end user pays less.

Nope, but it's a strong sign that they will do one day in the not too distant future when we have more intelligent grids (and more intelligent electricity consumption systems).

We are already starting to see this (e.g. the other day I saw a story about an aluminum smelter matching their production to the electricity spot price in Germany).

There are countries with power grids run by monopolistic assholes, often with strong financial interests in coal/gas/oil. Like America. The uptake of renewables in those countries will be much, much slower and they will pay more for electricity in the long run because they will keep the grids configured to operate poorly with renewables.

>Also, very little oil is used to generate electricity.

Yup, because it's damned expensive. This is why electric cars often end up being cheaper in the long run despite having higher purchasing prices.

This is also why solar panels are incredibly popular in Hawaii: their power stations do run on (expensive) oil.

>Something I don't understand is why more coal and oil businesses aren't investing more in solar and wind.

Typewriter companies didn't invest in computers. Kodak decided not to pursue digital cameras. This is the norm.

Large corporations are resistant to change at the best of times. They are ultra-resistant to change when the change will cannibalize an existing, profitable line of business.

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