I don't think I've seen anyone post this estimate of the transgender population yet:

http://ai.eecs.umich.edu/people/conway/TS/TSprevalence.html

The takeaway is that about 1 in 1000 people medically transition without SRS.

Notice this is written by Lynn Conway - very accomplished chip designer/electrical engineer/systems engineer

http://ai.eecs.umich.edu/people/conway/conway.html#Memoirs

I know a lot of trans people in my local community - but I'm trans myself so that's only logical. Still, intuitively, it can't be anywhere near as rare as 1:10,000