I love hating on VCs as much as the other guy, but I must admit I'm envious of the ability of Fred Wilson (and VCs in general) to zoom out and see the bigger picture. I wonder if that's a skill that can be learned/taught.
This is harder to so in some environments, but often, the more one goes up a ladder of influence, the easier it becomes (self efficiency, delegation, understanding of employer or sponsor).
I have no idea regarding VCs, but in large companies a common formula is: Managers: 10% of time for reflection Managers of managers: 20-30% of time Managers of managers of managers and further through the tree: 60% of time
This power of reflection increases clarity in decision, communication, and impact, whatever the field. Contrast this with the need to constantly fight fires with no time to think about the big picture.
Often, it doesn't work out this way. Lack of delegation, filling more than one role at the same time ('stretch goals' that really mean the organisation is under resourced), desire for immediate impact stop this from working.
Think about how it's different from other kinds of investing. Warren Buffett looks for industries that are stable and picks good companies that operate in those industries. To do this well you need to know what makes an industry stable and what makes a company good. Examine enough of them, avoid trying to get rich quickly, build a system, and you can do well at it.
VC by definition operates in unstable industries and has to pick winners based both on having a good read of people so as to pick good founders, and having a good read of society so as to have an idea of which kind of ventures might succeed.
To do well investing you need to have a good deal of money, to earn this money you generally have to be successful, the act of creating that success later plays a role in helping you to understand what makes a good investment.
So, you start out, conquer an industry and make a bunch of money, then use that success to make even more money investing in other people. If you can do both of these things, then you can not put your foot in your mouth every third word when trying to predict the future. Maybe you can cut it down to every third paragraph.
The only thing you can say about the author is that he's knowledgeable about the industry. His speculations on what happened in 2014 is a reflection of his knowledge, not skill.
Coding is a skill. If you just read a book on C++ without writing a line of code you gain a big picture understanding of C++, yet you lack the necessary skill to actually code. Like big picture thinking, anybody can learn a skill, but It takes far more time and discipline to actually gain a true skill then it does to see the big picture.
I'll say one thing though, understanding the big picture is often all you need to bullshit other people into thinking you have a certain skill.