15 Bitcoin Predictions for 2015
i.imgur.com
i.imgur.com
From here on we will start to see the benefits of Bitcoin and specific use cases takehold
* No, not remittance. The expensive bit of Western Union is in fact that last mile. http://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/2ne03g/the_buttcoi...
* It will remain difficult to turn your Bitcoins into conventional currency (which is the only reason there's such a spread between exchanges).
* It will get even harder to turn your conventional currency into Bitcoins, as any exchange not being run by blatant crooks puts you through the anti-money-laundering mill.
* The protocol problems will continue not to be fixed, unless Mircea Popescu can be convinced to go along with the Bitcoin Foundation. No 20-meg blocks for you!
* 99% of current hash power came online in 2014; this will be very price-sensitive, and much will go offline as the price drops, maybe coming back next hash adjustment.
* Miners will continue to sell their coins immediately to cover costs: we are near equilibrium, where the cost of mining 1 BTC approaches 1 BTC.
* Transaction irreversibility will remain Bitcoin's sticking point, as speculators who are insufficiently computer-savvy keep getting burnt.
* More exchanges will get hacked and/or just take everyone's money.
* Everyone who bought in the last year and held is a bagholder. Their claims and speculation will get increasingly frenzied. Ask for numbers supporting all claims, particularly the ones in this infographic.
* The bagholders and gambling addicts will continue to be taken by obvious scams, e.g. the two Ponzi scheme sites in just the last month.
* Altcoins will continue to be even scammier than the Bitcoin ecosphere, boggled as I was to realise this.
* The price is presently being held up by speculation and wishful thinking. No new reason will come along.
Oh yes, and another point for the above list:
* Nobody wants smart contracts. They know that the plot of Dr. Strangelove is literally an unstoppable smart contract going wrong. Real companies want to retain the option of lawyering out of a stupid deal. The only people who would want smart contracts are businesses looking to screw over their customers even more than "mandatory arbitration" clauses do. This is about as appealing to customers as no chargebacks, for the same reason.
* Blockchains, even if by some remarkable wrinkle they turn out useful for something, will not lug Bitcoiners' 33 GB of SatoshiDice penny shavings with them. Bitcoiners will continue to bring up "blockchain technologies" as a reason to bother with Bitcoin regardless, because that's literally all they have.
(Bitcoiners misunderstand that when a techie calls something "interesting" they don't necessarily mean "useful", "feasible" or "practical" — often they mean "what the hell even is that" or "I ain't even mad, that's amazing". The blockchain, particularly as implemented in Bitcoin, is very much the last.)
List reposted here, with supporting links: http://reddragdiva.dreamwidth.org/594396.html
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=938765.0
http://qntra.net/2015/01/localbitcoins-com-compromised-bitco...