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That's just the thing - I don't think 'playing it safe' is the goal in Washington, or at least not the only one. As is, the goal for contractors is to stay on a project as long as possible, earning more money over a longer period of time. Waterfall is a perfect excuse to do just that.

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I agree that's an issue, but I was thinking more of the decisions of the people who hire the contractors. The right Agile approach to a project is to structure it as a series of small wins and losses, rather than rolling the bones on one big win/loss. It's my hope that calculus will appeal to career-minded officials, especially since the Agile approach lets you demonstrate value earlier (thus reducing drama), lets you bet more on your wins, and dramatically reduces the chances of large failures.

'Playing it safe' is also the goal of the gov't civilian managers of those projects- they have a promotion schedule to hit and having a 'failure' on their resume jeopardizes that. And since they're only going to be there 2-3 years, the goal is just to keep things propped up until they rotate out.

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