Students are fleeing US law schools and pouring into engineering
qz.com
qz.com
The title reads "US students are fleeing law schools and pouring into engineering." This is backed up by data that shows law school enrollment declining and engineering graduate enrollment increasing.
However, it's not exactly a secret that engineering graduate programs have higher international student enrollment than law schools. So we'd need to know where the enrollment growth is coming from before we can conclude that US students are fleeing law for engineering.
From purely anecdotal experience, I would guess that a significant portion of the rise in grad school attendance is from international students.
Significantly fewer than engineering schools, because engineering degrees are applicable worldwide, and law degrees are applicable only to the jurisdiction you wish to practice in.
Engineering graduate students, on the other hand, almost always have a background in their field of graduate study. This is often very substantial - for instance, an EE major doesn't need a grad degree in EE to get to work. And even if a student is using grad school to build some general knowledge of a new field (such as a physics or math major going to grad school in CS), they're much closer than a history major would be to law [1].
In this case, the growth in grad enrollment might understate the transition, since a student who wanted to be a lawyer who instead decides to become an engineer might just change majors and avoid grad school altogether.
[1] I actually think that if people were allowed to take the bar without attending law school, you'd find that a lot of people could become extremely talented lawyers without the graduate degree.
After I got my EE degree I took the GRE and GMAT and aced them, getting 95th+ percentile, without studying at all. I then enrolled in a MBA program and was shocked at how easy, and unrigorous, the courses were compared to EE classes.
In later years during weeks with a large portion of lab work it wasn't uncommon to have 40+ hour weeks.
While I was an undergrad I rented a flat with a good friend of mine who was doing a B.A. (majoring in creative writing). He would complian if he had more than 7 hours a week.
There was a certain element among engineering students who reveled in the percieved difficulty of the degree there was a lot of 'machoness' about how hard the course was etc and there was a tendency to disparage other faculties particularly the Arts faculty. Which of course is nonsense.
It's also true that the non-quantitatively inclined do find some of a good MBA core curriculum pretty hard. I did some tutoring and in economics, among other things, and I had students who couldn't a simple equation. One once asked me to "explain how graphs work," i.e. basic x-y axis price elasticity, etc. Every few years there seems to be a book written by someone who really struggled with basic math in business school.
As pre-med isn't an undergrad degree in the states, we'd probably find pre-meds with engineering undergrad degrees outscore other majors on the MCAT. The engineering grad is also a bonus for admission (given way too many chem/biology applicants). Not that this happens very often, however.
Somewhat relatedly, it's been well known that for CS PhD admissions, at least with native English speakers, the GRE Verbal is a better predictor of PhD performance than the GRE Math. It's unclear how much of this is top-end compression in math though (almost everyone going to a top CS PhD school gets a 790 or 800 on the GRE Math, so there's no signal left there, whereas verbal has a higher spread. A 720 on the verbal is 98th percentile).[2]
[1] I know this because in 2009 as a college senior, I took some practice LSAT tests, and found the logic section endlessly delightful and challenging in a timed setting - I was this close to applying to law schools before I changed my mind and did a CS PhD instead. I know it sounds like a weird choice, but 2009 was a weird soul-searching year for me for various personal reasons.
[2] All of this has changed since 2011 when the GRE scoring system changed to a 130-170 scale from the old 200-800 scale, along with changes to the test itself. All of my points are probably obsolete.
But then, so's engineering.
Work sample tests might work better but at least in the UK they do multiple rounds of structured interviews followed by free form interviews after filtering by class of degree/university prestige. I bet their false positive rate on hiring is very low even if the false negative rate is high.
The GRE verbal is a great predictor of success in CS grad school and any kind of science grad school because it's so heavily g-loaded. Verbal scores are very hard to game and correlate well with raw IQ even when people try to study for the test and artificially improve scores. Antonyms, vocabulary, and reading comprehension are very good measures of the same mental ability that deep cutting edge research requires.
Of course, that doesn't work for non-fluent English speakers.
There are samples from both sections here for comparison: http://www.lsac.org/jd/lsat/about-the-lsat/
I too found analytic reasoning delightful, both during practice tests and during the actual test. One thing about the actual test that kicked it up a notch over practice tests (aside from the pressure of it being for real) was that you could not bring scratch paper to the real test. There was a fair bit of empty space in the test booklet so you had room for truth tables, graphs, and such, but if you botched one and had to start over you might find scratch space tight.
I aced analytic reasoning. Shortly after the test, I saw a magazine at the supermarket full of those kinds of problems. The shelf position and the ads in the magazine indicated it was aimed at older women. I bought it, because I enjoyed that part of the test so much, but didn't have much hope because I aced that part of the LSAT! How are puzzles for Grannies going to be a challenge? So I tried a level 3 difficulty puzzle (range was 1 to 5 with 5 the hardest).
It DESTROYED me. I could do level 1 reasonably, and level 2 with a lot of effort.
I vowed that if I did become a lawyer, I would not take cases that would pit me against old ladies. (I did not become a lawyer. I decided near the end of law school that I would rather be a programmer who knew a lot about law than a lawyer who knew a lot about programming. My policy of not going against old ladies in battles of wits remains in force).
With that in mind, it's not as if all students from all majors are required to take the exam- the data represents those people that self-selected to take the lsat.
http://www.potsdam.edu/academics/AAS/Phil/upload/LSAT-Scores...
It kills me because law school is way too expensive and way too long, and may well be unnecessary for a lot of people. But I understand the need for some kind of meaningful credentialing, since the harm one can do as a bad lawyer is usually more dangerous than what can be done by a bad engineer. (Mostly because any law grad can go and hang a shingle the day after they are admitted.)
[1] I don't mean to imply that failing the bar means one is incompetent! Extreme incompetency is a sufficient, but not necessary, condition.
Law school attendance for most students is being subsidized by richer students and by those who haven't figured out that law school at sticker is generally a scam.
The higher the sticker price, the more impressive a scholarship can seem.
As enrolments drop, schools are pretty desperate for students at present. LSAT median scores and median GPAs are dropping at many schools. Eventually, some schools will have to close; they're in a bubble.
http://www.lstscorereports.com/national/
A bit under $300,000 for most schools when you consider tuition and living expenses. That doesn't include interest on the debt.
It also doesn't consider the opportunity cost you mention. Finally, one thing most young students ignore is that they have to pay the debt back in AFTER-TAX income.
$300,000 in debt takes $450,000 in before tax earnings, assuming a 33% average tax rate.
The profession was much more of a bloodsport. Less cases settled, far less went to arbitration, and more money was spent when a case did go to trial.
Nowadays the culture has shifted almost completely to keeping costs down and settling things outside of court -- either settling outright or through a mediated arbitration (much less expensive).
It's no surprise to me that law school grads are out of work these days.
First, there are too many low quality law schools churning out people who can barely pass the bar. Those schools take home the tuition money and the young graduates have a mountain of non-dischargable debt with nowhere to turn. The rate of unemployed young graduates is actually probably even higher than figures show because schools will pay a small stipend to recent graduates so that they can say they are "employed" when the yearly figures for former students employed 6mo out are released. It's all about taking home the tuition for these schools and they shamefully advertise how demand for lawyers will increase and job prospects will remain high.
Second, the business has become vastly more efficient as firms begin to adopt digital case management systems and can now conduct research online instead of having to sort through volumes of old books. You know when you see the generic shelves of law books in offices? Yeah those just sit there collecting dust now. They are for show because all of that information has now moved onto the computer. The legal industry has been slow and late to adopt technology but it has made lawyers vastly more efficient than they could have been before. Even things like being able to email scans of documents can speed up the process astronomically. As older lawyers who cannot use computers begin to exit the workforce and younger ones who can move up in the ranks, firms just do not need as many people working as they did before. The vast majority of legal work is not what you see on TV or in the Ellen Pao case where it is a battle of the brains in real time for a court room. It is mundane routine paperwork that can be automated or done by assistants.
A lot of this stuff can even be done at home by your average person with products like turbo tax that enable the average person to not need representation for basic needs legal needs anymore.
I no longer plan on going to law school and have been taking online courses in programming/reading a ton of programming books since I graduated in hopes of turning what has been a long term hobby of mine into a career, hopefully combined with politics or law. (I am thinking campaign research/advertising online or legal software on the law side.)
In my experience, this is 100% true. I spent a few years working in "legal technology", which is just industry parlance for categorizing documents into "databases" (really just proprietary applications that compete over how best to read data from a flat file).
At the time (2009 - 2011), a ton of work was being done by teams of contract review attorneys. Entire rooms would be filled to the brim with these guys, paid anywhere between $20-$40 an hour to tab through page after page of document metadata and images.
The entire industry was on the verge of being completely upended, and this is in fact starting to have effect. The article on topic modelling and LDA that's also on the front page today is particularly germane, as there are in fact implementations of topic modelling and LDA for the legal technology world.
Look at this old web site: www.shitlawjobs.com
The "demand" (number of disputes) increases with the number of interactions, which is roughly the square of the number of people (each pair is another potential dispute). So if
- population is increasing, and
- supply (courts and lawyers) does not increase as fast as the square, and
- legal technology does not increase output per person[1],
then the backlog steadily increases and people have to work around it.
[1] Many economists insist that law inherently experiences Baumol's cost disease of resistance to technological improvements due to high human component of output, but I think that's more an artifact of the constrains we place on courts.
It wouldn't actually be a square of the population. There's a fairly low number of interactions a single person can have in a day. Plus most disputes that I can have with a person I don't know are criminal instead of civil.
And you have potential interactions with anyone within a given jurisdiction, the same one over which the infrastructure exists. Sure, you don't interact with them all, but you interact with a fraction of them, so the scaling properties are the same.
Moreover, I disagree with the common analogy made in circles like HN that laws resemble code. Perhaps in some esoteric probabilistic language they might, though I don't believe thinking such as "ML will fix this" will yield a proper correspondence.
LegalZoom type services are wiping out entire segments that pricey lawyers used to occupy. Need to incorporate? Don't spend thousands of dollars, spend $150 to $200 + state fees. Need a trademark? $150 to $200 plus govt fees. Need a basic will? $50 to $100, no hassle.
There are somewhere around 3 to 4 million corporations in the US. Most of those will fail and die over ten years. The new corporations that get started, will increasingly use easier and cheaper web services to incorporate. That's billions of dollars in lawyer revenue wiped out every ten years, from one example service.
I think this is about as realistic a goal as the Holy Grail of an English-like programming language that's easy for non-programmers to use.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/23/pf/college/student_loan_fugi...
I work in china but shop in the states on my visits back. As far as salary goes, I'm a bit below us levels but can save alot because I don't need, nor could I buy even I I wanted to, a car. Working in Swiss was like that also, things were just too expensive to buy so I was able to save alot.
The US, as far as I know, is by far the highest paying country to software engineers in the world, starting by 2-3x to rich countries. I seriously doubt ANY software engineer can make more money in China than in the US for any similar position of responsibility.
Another fact I learned from my travels is that US is actually cheapest country if you keep the quality of goods and services constant. In most foreign countries - including tax free countries like UAE - things like iPhone, computers, cars are actually more expensive than in US. Almost all imported goods from China, Japan etc are typically cheaper in US than in other countries. Some services, food and labor could be cheaper but overall if you insist at staying at Hilton quality hotels or eating at nice restaurants, buying an equivalently nice urban home, or getting top quality spa treatment, cost usually comes out to same as in US.
Obviously these are anecdots so don't take it as statistical trend. Having said that there has been no better time to be expat if (1) if you have US education/experience (2) you can get work permits (3) you have freedom to travel around.
I still would not believe China pays software engineers more than the US, even at a leadership position, without some stats. China as much as India has vast lower "engineering" cast based on price.
I have not yet heard of people from Argentina returning to glory after working outside, it is expected to take a dent in income, even though argentina is much richer than China/India for these purposes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst//highest...
And Switzerland and Israel are very small countries, where the engineering sample is probably very low and so are th work opportunities.
http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d14/tables/dt14_322.10.as...
NOTE: Data through 1990-91 are for institutions of higher education, while later data are for postsecondary institutions that participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs.
There's a definition change in there, and we can't be certain whether we can meaningfully compare the latest year of data with 1985--the curse of using government-published statistics.
There are some other branches of engineering too and the non-EE types outnumber the EE's. Pretty sure the programs in questions are mostly civil, mechanical, chemical, etc.
I had the ideal of going to law school several years ago, studied history and economics in college, with loads of public policy knowledge. Ultimately I determined that these fields actually don't interest me all that much. I mean, I had been reading texts on formal logic in my spare time because I found such subjects to be far more engaging.
I enrolled for another Bachelor's degree a while ago to help build up my chops for a career in development; effectively swapping one applied logic for another. Yet I have a lot of catching up to do to meet up with peers who have been working in the industry for nearly a decade. There's a nagging feeling of dread within me that I might just be naive at best, a fraud at worst, and end up a failure. Still, I enjoy working on projects for hours at a time (when I manage to find the time to do so) and find the subject matter I'm studying engaging. In that sense, I can at least say I don't regret the shift.
Now, 5-6 years out of undergrad I am a professional software developer without a formal CS education. I took a few CS classes and plenty of hard math as part of my Econ degree, but I don't hold a CS degree (or even a minor).
But I was always a computer geek from a young age. Through many years of interest, motivation, and self-teaching I worked in IT, then QA, and now development. I also work with many other non-CS-degree developers that are great.
You can definitely make a successful transition.
Maybe the grass is always greener...
The Silicon Valley idealists who want to "change the world with food delivery" are (as a broad class, not every specific instance) largely PR faces created for marketing purposes by and for people who want to make lots of money, and know that having some kind of compelling mission (even if that "compelling mission" might change to something radically different later on) is important both for attracting customers and for attracting investors.
There is a substantial danger in being pigeonholed and eliminated because of some weekend hobby project three years ago "Oh we can't hire that guy, he does low level hardware driver work on microcontroller RFID devices and we need a DBA" Outside SV and NYC there is no shortage of coders and you'll get rejected for nothing.
> Assess based on open-source contributions, which show craftsmanship, architecture, and love of coding
... and personal time allocation that reveals things you're not legally allowed to ask directly.For a self-insured employer, the fact that I have a family makes me more expensive to employ. Hiring only young, single males or young, single, and sterile females allows them to raise base salary offers without inflating total compensation.
But they are not allowed by law to use the size of my family against me in the hiring process. Technically. Practically speaking, they do it anyway, and the law is unenforceable. If there's a potential legal problem, it's easy to fall back on the "not a good cultural fit" cushion.
If you don't expect someone to be contributing to their github repo on the clock, on your dime, don't check it as a criterion for employment.
I'm not really concerned about whatever supposed "hidden biases" there are in open source, the simple fact is that the best way to judge someone's work is to see it.
If you're concerned about hidden biases I would direct you to the status quo brainteasers used today, where the interviewer simply has a blank slate to project whatever personal biases they have onto the candidate in a highly subjective, highly unrealistic situation that has nothing to do with actual programming.
If you want to see someone's actual work, you will have to simulate as closely as possible, in a controlled and repeatable fashion, the conditions under which that person will be doing work for you.
If you're looking for a cello player, you don't watch YouTube videos of musicians tap dancing, making trick shots in billiards, sawing lumber by hand, or performing close-up magic tricks. You number them, sit them down behind a visual barrier, and listen to each of them play the same piece of music. Then you pick the number that played it the best and hire that person.
Pulling back from that metaphor a bit, software professionals don't play just one instrument, or one genre of music. We know multiple high level languages, use different framework tools, use different design patterns, follow different processes, and the only thing we really all have in common is the ability to take a large, human-sized task and break it down into tiny, specific instructions simple enough for a stupid electronic machine to carry out--the paths between origin and destination being uncountably varied, and the ones chosen being largely a matter of arbitrary choices or aesthetic preferences.
If you won't consider anyone that does not have a public portfolio, you are inviting the obvious countermeasure of creating a sham portfolio just to jump through your hoop. You are encouraging people to write code that advances the author's interests rather than those of a project.