Desktop Linux needs salesmen
tech-no-media.com
tech-no-media.com
What Linux on the desktop really needs is a reference platform. If people could be sure that the hardware they were buying (or had) would work at least as well as Windows, it would help.
But what it also needs, to really move into the desktop realm proper, is a more cohesive community. More effort spent on the mundane stuff like usability tweaks, interfaces and better package work.
Linux needs to get a foothold in this market in an open way.
It's probably acceptable for the ordinary punter already, but whichever family member does their tech-support is probably happier in Windows or Mac OS X.
My sister co-founded and works full time at a small non-profit retail business with an extremely limited budget. Faced with a slowly-dying ancient Win98 laptop as her only computer and doing all the business's finances on paper, a few months ago I donated a slightly less ancient Dell laptop and a second-hand desktop box, after installing Ubuntu on both (the desktop also included a minimalist PoS system that I wrote over a few weekends, plus stuff like GNUCash already installed).
Talking to her since then, both machines seem to be giving her far fewer headaches than the Windows 98 box did, and despite me fishing for any complaints she seems perfectly happy with Ubuntu. For context, her level of technical sophistication is around the level of "knows the difference between hard drives and RAM, and writes HTML by hand (using table layouts)", so better than the average guy off the street but nowhere near stereotypical bearded Linux users (such as, um, myself).
So, what makes Linux work for her? 1) Support from a family member, though apparently so far everything just works 2) No requirements to use Windows-only software or unusual hardware 3) Extremely limited financial resources, combined with not using the typical means that reduce Windows' TCO to match Linux (bulk/academic discounts, hiding the cost in the price of new hardware, getting pirated copies, etc.).
These three factors are certainly not unique, but the combination is somewhat unusual, and I doubt any amount of aggressive word-of-mouth marketing from Linux geeks is going to get people using it without those factors.
In other words, the issue is not why someone can't use Linux, but what they would gain by using Linux--such as the factors I outlined for my sister's situation.
There's a nice graph that shows this (and the fact that IE usage has always been growing, though it has now slowed to a standstill) here:
I would look towards Haiku OS as the future for Free Software desktop users. It's more integrated and much nicer to deal with.