The spy satellite Lacrosse 5 and its “disappearace trick”
astrophoto.fr
astrophoto.fr
All of which is to say he's one of the foremost civilian experts at imaging satellites from the ground.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwjvduR3_Ho
The video is 15 seconds long, the actual transit is less than 1 second.
The key questions:
> Is it a matter of strongly differing reflectance properties of the satellite body with illumination angle? Is it some brightly reflecting appendage on the satellite disappearing from view? Is it a dark appendage on the satellite starting to block view of the illuminated satellite body, or casting a shadow on it? Is it due to some moving part of the satellite, e.g. a moving dish antenna?
It's all rather fascinating. Presumably having a stealth satellite is somewhat redundant as the objects will eventually be seen or tracked by other spacecraft or satellites?
It has its limitations, of course. But it's a step above a visible satellite with fixed orbit.
EDIT: I missed the part where he says it is definitely NOT a stealth capability being demonstrated. So that's not applicable here. Still, a low-observability capability makes sense
There are no satellites (to my knowladge) that are carrying anything approaching the delta-v required to break orbit, but radical changes in orbit are feasible, and especially for surveillance and reconnaissance satellites, essential.
Spy satellites are different because the nature of the mission means you can't really guarantee you'll pick the appropriate plane in advance. If something interesting starts happening somewhere in the world, you may want satellites over it sooner than would occur in their current orbits. Spy satellites can and do maneuver to accomplish this. The amount of maneuvering is pretty limited by basic physics and the size of the satellites, but it is done. Here's a page that discusses one:
http://fas.org/spp/military/program/imint/kh-12.htm
"The primary difference between the 28,000 pound KH-11 and the heavier KH-12 is that the additional amount of maneuvering propellant carried on the IMPROVED CRYSTAL. This additional propellant can be used to prolong the operating life of the IMPROVED CRYSTAL, to maneuver to improve coverage of areas on the Earth of particular interest, and to maneuver to evade Soviet anti-satellite interceptors."
A quick calculation: taking the numbers in the article to mean there's 7 tons of fuel on board and 11 tons of non-fuel stuff, assuming the fuel is hydrazine giving a specific impulse of about 220, that gives the satellite a delta-v of about 1km/s, which is fairly substantial.
Wikipedia has a nice picture of these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Ocean_Surveillance_Syste... and article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Ocean_Surveillance_Syste...
The thing has solar panels and is in a low orbit. So those panels are a significant source of drag. Normally this is a problem, but perhaps they are using this drag to adjust the orbit. I'm not talking plane change. I mean controlling the amount of drag to adjust orbital speed/altitude/period.
Even with all their extra fuel, spy sats do not make plane changes. A significant change would require hundreds of m/s and they have, at best, 1000m/s for their lifetime. (Xenon is power-hungry/tricky/slow and therefore not suitable for quick plane changes). These are multi-billion dollar assets with lifetimes measured in decades. You aren't going to spend 100m/s and shorten the lifetime of the asset by years, effectively spending a billion or more, on a plane change.
What they might do is adjust the timing of flyovers by controlled changes to orbital periods. Rotating solar panels, a significant source of drag and reflection, could give some control. Such a maneuver would probably be done at the lowest point in the orbit (highest drag) and could explain the quick and apparently random change in reflectivity.
The test for my theory: Does this disappearing trick happen more often at the low point of the orbit? (If you call that the periapsis we know you spend weekends on Duna.)