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Comment by 7Figures2Commas | Hacker News Reader

First glance: the ratio of features to products to businesses is astounding.

That's what people said about Dropbox.

You'd have to know their grand vision to decide whether they can become real businesses. And even then, you'd have to buy into it.

I'm confident YC is not investing in any company without a shot at becoming a multi-billion dollar business.

I had the same first impression. I see many cool products, some cool ideas/concepts, but....very few real businesses. That's how it goes though, 5 years from now, one, maybe two of these 'companies' will be around still. It's a fun game.

Fair comment for typical accelerators but not really true in the case of YC. There are far more alive or exited than dead companies in YC's alumnus.. http://yclist.com (out of date but it's the old data that's relevant here).

Do you have insight into the financial operations of every company on that list?

There are a fair number of zombie startups in Silicon Valley that haven't yet exhausted their funding. Some even have enough revenue to keep the lights on. But it doesn't mean they're anywhere close to having a thriving business that will be able to sustain itself and grow meaningfully over time.

When evaluating startups, alive/dead is a lazy means of analysis. This is particularly true in today's funding environment, where companies can raise seven figure seed rounds and establish a fairly long runway very early on. The real question is how many of the startups funded today will ever realistically be in a financial position to return capital, and how much, to their investors.

Exactly, I do not count, 'Hey we've made it five years now, but can hardly break even and have no clear vision of where to go from here' as 'alive'. In fact, by that time, the investors have probably written them off and will be trying to figure out if they can salvage some talent from it before their runway ends. In the end, YC or not, less than 10% of these guys will become real companies. It's just statistics. YC may get you the seven figure round, but if you keep your, 'product', or 'feature' as such for a few years, you're dead.

Edit: Not trying to discredit what these start ups have done so far, it's very hard getting to that point alone.

It's early seed stage for many :)

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