There's no good model out there I know of for the rate of innovation. Massive availability of a resource should spur innovation around its use. It's very difficult to predict the future demand for a resource beyond a timescale of decades.
A good historical parallel for this kind of situation might be aluminum, which was a precious metal for many years. When it suddenly became available in large quantities due to new chemical processes for extracting it, supply skyrocketed and led to whole new industries. I don't think anyone in 1890 could have guessed what the ultimate demand for aluminum would settle at, even though it was clear the price was dropping precipitously.