Analyst: Windows Phone to Overtake iPhone by 2016 (2012)
visualstudiomagazine.com
visualstudiomagazine.com
I don't think WP will overtake iPhone in sales in that time frame.
Reason #1 - OS restrictions - The multiple restrictions in WP especially app sharing will keep it's market share down.
Reason #2 - perception. Where I live, the perception of people even "experts" (although wrong) is that WP is hard to use.
Reason #3 - availability. Android consistently beat WP on price in the past but that is changing. However, Microsoft is a slow bison. It's product release schedule is haphazard. Low-cost Lumias take up to 10 months before they show up in my market. It'll need faster distribution methods because people can only buy what they see.