My rule is that you should stay away from aha! type questions that really only tell you one bit of information.
Designing a program to solve this kind of problem might be more of an interesting conversation…
The same holds for the logic puzzle in the OP. You can solve it step by step, without any leaps. The main difficulty is getting over the initial intellectual "flinch", and making yourself actually engage with the problem. IMO that's an important skill for developers to have.
First variation is with the candidates ability to solve the problem. Like you said, Microsoft and Google seem to have determined there's no correlation between that and job performance.
Second variation is with a panel of interviewers who propose the problem. Based on how the candidate responds, the panel chooses whether to 'hire' the candidate, based on their ability to reason about the problem and communicate, rather than on their ability to solve it.
I wonder if there's a correlation between the yes/no of the interviewers and the candidate's job performance.
I showed it to a few friends and a few of them had zero interest. Some tried for 30 seconds, then asked for the answer. Another wanted a hint. One said "I don't get it". One gave the answer right away and it was wrong. And some didn't get it after a decent step-by-step explanation, or even weren't interested in the explanation.
That says a lot, I think, about a certain mentality of a person towards particular types of problems, challenges and learning opportunities.
But I say mostly no, because there are hundreds of questions like these. Once you do 2-3 (and if you're in certain circles, you most likely have), the 4th or 5th become very easy, if they are even different (and not just a copy/paste) of ones you've already done.
In short, I think the question can be meaningful sometimes, give false positives a LOT of times, and probably give some false negatives, too. (e.g. nervous people who can't think outside the box in an interview boilerroom which is an a-typical work environment in my experience).
So yeah, I wouldn't personally ever use this in an interview.
For those people, it might be beneficial to stop making such assumptions -- doing so seems to reflect a tendency to jump to conclusions.
There is lots of room for tough interview questions that only a percentage of people do well, provided that your interview as a whole does not skew too much towards any one question.
Personally -- and I don't need people to agree on this point -- I'd rather setup an interviewing process where people don't ace all the questions and that is considered ok. I'd rather see how far a candidate does across, say, 10 relatively deep, hard problems, even if they only do well in a few of them. In other words, I'd rather find out where a candidate excels rather than "average out" an interview so that "on average" candidates don't think it is too hard.
To sum up what I believe to be true: heterogeneity and diversity is good, both in your interviewing questions and your team. Don't be afraid to ask tough questions -- but if you do, think hard about how you evaluate the responses.
Second, the circumstances in which you're asking candidates to solve these problems almost certainly do not reflect those in which they will be required to work should they get the job. Nervous anxiety, unfamiliarity, strong time pressure and intense outside observation are not conductive to good performance, and are (hopefully) not part of your everyday working environment, but all are present in an interview. So when you present difficult problems, you're not just selecting for people who can solve them, you're selecting for people who can solve them in conditions that will never otherwise arise.
I was able to solve the logic question in the linked article after about five minutes of head-scratching. But I am 99.9% certain that, in interview conditions, I would never have figured it out. I would have spent those five minutes of head-scratching fighting off a rising tide of panic. And the thing is, having had interviews and given interviews, I am not even particularly nervous during them, relatively speaking.