How to be right 90% of the time, and why I'd rather be wrong (2007)

I think your argument fails with the assumption that not starting a business gives leaves you with nothing. Starting and failing 80% of the time does not net you with 0. The opportunity cost of the time you spent on failed ventures is much greater than 0. Therefore, there is some risk inherent in starting a new business.

That being said, ever reward has a commensurate amount of risk. Putting yourself out there could result in you creating something great!

Following Paul's logic, it's vastly better to be an investor than an entrepreneur. The former can be wrong 80%, but the latter must be 100% right.

The entrepreneur doesn't have to be right 100% of the time. Granted being wrong once could ruin you financially and cost you a few years in opportunity cost, but that doesn't prevent you from trying again - maybe a year or two down the road if need be.

I've been wrong 3 times now but I'm still up at bat swinging. I'm also guessing my batting avg is getting better with each subsequent swing.

(2007)