Ask HN: Best way for individual investor to take short position in tech stocks | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Best way for individual investor to take short position in tech stocks

6 pointssvtrent16 comments

For both hedging and speculative purposes, I am interested in risking some money that technology stocks will broadly decline in value over the next few months to 1 year. As far as I can tell, there is no good way for me as an individual investor to express this viewpoint. Some ideas and their pitfalls:

- Buy put options on a broad tech ETF like QQQ, but the costs of trading options seem prohibitively high at online brokerages (TD Ameritrade, Schwab)

- Buy an inverse ETF like PSQ, but inverse ETFs have very high fees and also only tend to work over a very short time horizon (days at most)

- Buy a long position in some stocks that should benefit if tech declines. Unfortunately I don't know of any sector that is so clearly inversely correlated with tech

Does anybody know of a good way to take a short position in tech stocks?

View on HN

The short answer( which is almost always the short answer to generic investment strategy advice) is it depends.

I wouldn't select an actively managed fund like inverse ETFs based on their strategy. You aren't just investing in the strategy but also in the fund managers ability to execute on this strategy.

Because you have a specific time horizon and you mentioned hedging the options strategies seems like a decent idea. You mentioned buying puts, but you could also sell call options, much like shorting stocks. This will give you leverage. You can do this by using derivatives of index etfs or hand select the companies you think are going down.

You mention the fees at low cost brokerages being too high. They are typically around $15 per trade. To be honest if you aren't investing ~5000 even the greatest return probably woulnd't be worth the time and research necessary for completing the transaction.

Also ignore the people saying its a sure fire way to lose money. Being speculative is an important function of the economy. No risk no reward!

The fees for options at TD Ameritrade and Schwab are $10 + $0.75 per options contract. Forget the $10 base fee, if I understand correctly it's the per contract fee that's exorbitant. Take the QQQ ETF: put options that are a little out of the money cost $2-$3 each, so the 75 cent fee is around a third of the investment amount, and if you incur another 75 cent fee per contract if/when you sell then it's even worse

That's interesting they must have changed the fee structure from the last time I looked. That being said a contract usually refers to 100 options on the underlying. So a contract for the put options you talked about would be $200 +.75 + $10. I haven't taken a look at their fee structure so I'm not sure if that is how it works but it would make more sense.

FYI: Inverse ETFs are horrible. They wind up buying high and selling low, due to the fact they continually rebalance. Someone did a study of inverse ETFs, and they performed poorly even when their target index tanked.

Even if you buy 1-2 year NASDAQ ETF (QQQQ) puts, there's no guarantee that the bubble won't pop in 1-2 years. You may wind up with a 100% loss.

The overall trend is for the stock market to go up, due to inflation. Short selling and put buying is betting against that trend.

There is no guarantee that the market will crash (even if it's overvalued right now). There might just be a couple years of 0%-5% returns, in which case put buying and short selling won't work.

Remember that, if the market does tank 10% or more, the Federal Reserve will probably increase their "quantitative easing" to try and re-inflate it.

Also to alleviate the possibility of the stock market at large expanding and wiping out any gains form the QQQQ not doing as well you can sell puts on a broader index(like s&p) and then sell calls for the what you think will do poorly. For more info google stock picking options strategies.

But with an unhedged option spread like that, his losses are unlimited. I.e., QQQQ continues to skyrocket while SPY tanks (or is flat).

Naked put selling is very dangerous. (Well, his risk is limited to the strike, but that's a small consolation when the premium for selling the put is 5%-10% of that.)

I agree with your opinion of inverse ETFS in general.

As to the fact that there is no guarantee that puts or shorting will pay off this is stating the obvious. Its called speculation for a reason. No pain no gain.

Among the options you listed, long term put option on QQQ appears to be the best fit for your objectives.

Fidelity charges $7.95 per trade plus $0.75 per contract. More info on fees at https://www.fidelity.com/trading/commissions-margin-rates.

When you first start Option trading, you will likely need to call to get approval from the brokerage for options trading. Most brokerages will also provide you an Option Risk guide similar to this http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-....

If you are new to Options, I will suggest doing some research and reading online to familiarize yourself. If you are further interested in learning theory and mathematics of Options, a good introductory text is "Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives" by John Hull http://www.amazon.com/Options-Futures-Other-Derivatives-9th/...

You seem to be aware of the risk, in the event all you get here is lectures on why you shouldn't do it, the folks over at http://www.reddit.com/r/investing may be able to help.

Consider the fees just the cost of doing business. If the fees seem too high then it's not a good business for you at this time. Because shorting has potentially unlimited losses, the high price of entry is a filter to keep out those who may not really be suited for the risks.

Good luck.

1) I would suggest you be more specific. "Tech stocks" is vague. Do you mean tech consumer goods, industrial tech, tech materials?

2) It seems to me that your ability to take risk plus your confidence in your foresight is nearly equal to your perceived costs of doing the speculation you've set out to do. That tells me that your profit margin is too slim, that you are looking to compete where there are lots of eyes, lots of other people thinking the same thing. I encourage you to find an speculative investment that you believe in more (or with less eyes on it) before you pull the trigger and slap down some cashola.

This was actually a good call and you would've nailed about over 100% returns (in a few days) if you went long on put options on the big tech-social stocks for this quarter.

Twitter and LinkedIn took a hammering, so individually they would've done well for your portfolio.

Just write Goldman Sachs a check for the amount you want to gamble. It'll save you time and stress.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Individuals generally should not short. With ZIRP, the Federal Reserve is inflating hard.

Why not ... Just short tech stocks? No need for all this put option, inverse ETF, etc. nonsense. Pick a few tech stocks you think represent the sector and go short em.

Save yourself some money ;-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage

i wouldnt say its a bad idea, as i will be shorting tech stock soon as well... the bubble cant keep inflating.

my broker does it for me, i just tell him what i want and he does the rest.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com