Apple is making good inroads in adoption, after a few costly moves reducing its market share, is gaining and hopefully continues to gain, traction and position itself as the consumer alternative to the nightmare of Windows. Linux is many different things, but the gain of community supported, easy to install, open source software will likely continue making inroads into the proprietary world. It remains to be seen if Linux can bridge enough proprietary apps to address the needs of Joe user.
In many of these systems, an important factor is the software ecosystem surrounding the OS itself: Windows has had this major boost and resistance to competition based on its 1-2 orders of magnitude greater availability of software than any of its competitors, but OS X is attracting a number of niche apps with major strong appeal to some user factions, and Linux is finally getting easy to use methods to access the plethora of good apps that make an OS stick.