Comment by ryanwaggoner | Hacker News Reader

Comment by ryanwaggoner | Hacker News Reader

This seems really...unlikely. Yes, laptops displaced desktops, but it's because they offer essentially the same benefits and experience, but with portability and convenience. No, they're not as powerful for the money, and they're not as expandable, but as computing power has grown, both of those have begun to matter less to most people.

But with a handheld device, you're giving up a tremendous set of features and benefits for very little additional benefits. Yeah, I can stick a phone in my pocket, so it's marginally more portable than a Macbook Air, but it's pretty rare that I'm out somewhere and wish I could develop something but haven't brought my laptop. Maybe super-developers just run around with their phones and long for the means to develop software 24/7, fingers and eyes glued to their 2.5 inch screen :)

The point is, I don't know that's reasonable to assume that because laptops displaced desktops, handheld devices will displace laptops for development purposes. Writing code is still very much about handling text, and phones present huge barriers in terms of input, display, and ergonomics. Think about all the articles that show huge boosts in productivity as size and number of displays increase. And now we're going to go back to a 2.5 inch screen? Highly doubt it.

I really like most of what PG writes because it seems like he writes to explore topics, but I think he headed down the wrong rabbit trail with this one.

EDIT: To be clear, I definitely agree that handhelds will continue to replace more and more of people's laptop use for everyday tasks, but I sincerely doubt they'll replace developers' use of laptops and desktops for writing software.

I would tend to agree with you if you're only thinking about the US but 3rd world countries are a totally different ballgame.

There was a Nokia video out last week about the year 2015 and what mobile would look like at that point. While none of it was revolutionary what struck me the most was the thought that BILLIONS of people are going to begin making the kind of money necessary to get a smartphone in the next decade. Those 'phones' are going to be their only computer, their only access to the internet, and their only device that would allow application development.

If we, using the royal hacker we, could develop a mobile or web-based development environment that worked on mobile devices it could enable a new population of developers that dwarfs the number of devs we have in the world now. I would be surprised if the number of mobile applications developed on mobile devices was extremely high in the 3rd world in the next decade.

Imagine having a monitor/keyboard at work and a separate monitor/keyboard at home. What if you could simply plug in (wired or wireless) your phone into either setup and have your OS available? That's incredibly convenient.

Might be very possible with the next USB-like installment: http://www.engadget.com/2009/09/26/exclusive-apple-dictated-...

I think it far more likely that this kind of transparent OS portability will come from the cloud, rather than from carrying it around on my mobile phone.

laptops displaced desktops, but it's because they offer essentially the same benefits and experience, but with portability and convenience

But they didn't originally, and not for a long time, even though it was inevitable it would happen one day. I carried various laptops around for years before finally being able to buy one that was powerful enough to be my only development machine.

phones present huge barriers in terms of input, display, and ergonomics

Keyboards are available that are full-size, yet which take up no physical space - a laser projects an image of a keyboard onto any flat surface, and a camera figures out where you're typing.

Mini projectors are starting to come out, meaning you don't need any physical space for a good monitor either.

Combining these two, with a good handheld platform and two flat surfaces (e.g. a desk and a wall), I don't see any real barrier to making this happen.

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