But insurance companies are founded on the assumption that they will only have to pay out in the exceptional case, no?

If they can know for a fact that a certain accident rate is guaranteed for a given car, then they will explicitly disclaim liability for accidents within that rate, similar to how all product warranties expire before the far end of the bathtub curve.

Otherwise it's like selling flood insurance on a flood plain, or health insurance to cancer patients: something that makes no economic sense and only exists where the government has forced it to.