The amateur scientist (that's us) | Hacker News Reader

The amateur scientist (that's us)

sethgodin.typepad.com

23 pointscwan15 comments

[No mention of longitudinal studies or long-term side effects.]

But as was also reported, the swine flu vaccine was being developed in a rush; there just wasn't enough time to study the long-term side effects, and the parents who worry about the vaccine not being safe can be actually right. But I doubt Seth cares about that, all he thinks about is how to market it.

Now I don't say it is wrong to get a vaccine, but I think we should be careful to not be influenced be marketers and ignore other facts.

This isn't quite true. The vaccine was made in a rush, but it was done using the exact same techniques that have been used for years to make the normal seasonal flu vaccine. And I'd say that is probably the most widely used and studied vaccine in history.

Instead of targeting the normal 'seasonal' flu variants, the h1n1 vaccine targets h1n1. So, fears about the risks of this vaccine being any different from the risks of the seasonal flu vaccine are pretty much unfounded.

(Disclaimer: I am a scientist...)

I think OP proved Seth's point quite well: there's a lot of scientific-sounding drivel coming from armchair scientists that just don't hold up to people in the know, but sound perfectly reasonable to laymen.

I think what Seth is saying is that parents are objecting for the wrong reasons, not that they are wrong because the longitudinal studies say the vaccine is safe.

Audiophiles spend thousands of dollars rewiring the electrical lines in their house with .99999% pure copper, ignoring the fact that the power from the street is in the same old cables.

What is the pure copper supposed to help? I've not heard of this. Depending on what it is supposed to do, it may not be so irrational (except for the fact that most room acoustics are lousy and mess up all of your efforts in electronics). After all, the power company only provides you energy, not electrons. You just slosh the same old electrons back and forth in your wire.

Which is cool 'cuz those power company electrons would be coming from a long ways away and would obviously be tired by the time they got to my house.

> What is the pure copper supposed to help?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-end_audio_cables

James Randi will give a million dollars to anyone who can tell the difference.

> electrons would be coming from a long ways

I know it was a joke, but electrons don't really move with alternating current.

I know it was a joke, but electrons don't really move with alternating current.

Well, ok, but if you're not going to let me be funny then we better at least clarify for future readers: Electrons are actually moving quite rapidly regardless of the type of current, it's just that they get scattered around a bit and don't make much average progress (called drift). We get a lot of charge moving per time (current) because there are a tremendous number of them moving, not because their average speed is great.

In direct current, the drift velocity (or drift speed) stays in the same direction. In alternating current, it switches direction with the frequency of the applied voltage.

Typical values of drift speed are, if I recall correctly, of the order of millimeters/hour.

[edit-- thanks for the link]

There is a very long way form audiophiles to people who delay giving hastily developed precautionary drug against illness that has 0.02% mortality rate on diagnosed patients.

Audiophiles are just people who pay vast amounts of their expendable money for feeling well. They are just plain stupid because if they changed their friends and forgot the audio thing altogether they'd feel well at no cost.

Cautious parents just show reservation and that is not stupid at all. Especially taking into account in haste preparations of the vaccine, major amount of money that is going flow to pharmaceutical companies and information noise generated by the media.

You don't want to be early adopter of potentially buggy solution if your kids health is at stake.

Stupid != irrational.

I just say that mentioning audiophiles and swine flu vaccine in same article makes me uneasy. And not acting on something you hear in media is neither stupid nor irrational.

Reminds me of a rant from a friend of mine who used to work in a recording studio.

"You should see the 20 meters of grimy, oxidized and plain cable under the raised floor tiles that the signal travels from a musicians guitar or mic to the recording equipment, before it gets recorded. Then people buy $200 cables and claim to be able to tell the difference. Whatever."

I'm a fan of Seth Godin, but:

> The challenge for people trying to market vaccines or highlight long-term side effects of various consumer choices is that it's much easier to spread a story about exploding cars or hair falling out than it is to spread a story of 'nothing bad happens' or 'no one got the swine flu and died'...

> PS if I was marketing the swine flu vaccine, I'd name it after a kid who died last season and put her picture on the release form.

Well, I guess if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

> PS if I was marketing the swine flu vaccine, I'd name it after a kid who died last season and put her picture on the release form.

Ah the old "Buy our stuff or your kid will die like this one" pitch. Always works.

Reminds me of the "Pass this law or...think of the children!" style of politics.

You can argue about if it is good or not, but there is no denying that it is good marketing.

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