(note: this is supposed to be pseudo-tongue-in-cheek-back-of-the-envelope math)
Let's say they invest...I dunno $300m in developing this technology (completely made-up number)
- The average commute time in the U.S. is ~30 minutes...or 1 hour per day. I don't know what it is globally, but for fun we'll assume it's the same for everybody on the planet.
- Google made $66billion in 2014 (or about $9.43 per person on the planet, assuming 7billion people)
- Assume most people are awake 16 hours during a day.
- However, if people are stuck driving for 1 hour out of those 16, that's only 15 hours they can build revenue for google.
- This means google is generating about $.63 per available waking hour per person.
- 1 more available hour is $.63*7billion = a possible "new" market of $4.4billion/year assuming every person
This would pay back the R&D costs handsomely + tons of profit in the first year if google can get everybody to switch all at once.
Even if it takes a decade or two to switch humanity to self-driving cars, it would still pay for itself quickly.