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It depends on how much uptake you get, doesn't it? For example, I spend less than $10/mo on apps (and for that matter, music too). If that's the case for enough users who get the new deal, this would be a net gain for developers. I think that's why you get developers(/musicians) to agree to it.

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It's actually a bit better than that.

You're suggesting a simple view where you look at the average amount people who subscribe to this (e.g. $10/month) service would have otherwise paid, and that if that number is less than $10/month the devs (/musicians) win. This is certainly true.

However, there's the additional benefit that not every user that subscribes will entirely drop their purchasing habits. Perhaps less often, but some subscribers will buy apps (/music) on top of their subscription.

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