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...or one could resort to the implied risk at Greek government bonds. A bond which matures in November next year trades at about 60% of the value you will (or wont) receive at that date. In other words the odds are roughly 2:3 that Greece defaults until then.

http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/191049-Griechenland-Anleihe

if we don't, I will be really surprised...

You know nothing about our politicians..If you did, this wouldn't be 40-60 but way more!

Based on what I've heard from family that just got back from Greece, the referendum will come in with a strong majority voting to reject the terms from the EU/ECB/IMF, and the loans will be defaulted on.

Does this mean that the EU / EMU will vote to kick out GR from their unions? Or that GR politicians will vote to leave EU / EMU ? As much as I personally hope for the entire continent to reject the EMU and return to their own currencies, these things are less clear.

Where does the data come from?

Will Greece Will Exit the Eurozone in 2015? – Live Odds