I think if it was not for the convoluted Revlog [1] format (which makes it impossible to do a clean-room reimplementation of Mercurial Core), we could see a bit more of adoption by having third-party libraries to interface with Hg repositories. It _might_ have been one of the reasons Git, not Mercurial, was added to TFS [2].
1: https://mercurial.selenic.com/wiki/RevlogNG
2: https://hglabhq.com/blog/2014/1/17/mercurial-support-in-tfs-...
Alternatively, we could see a bit more adoption if it were available under a more permissive license than the GPL.
Also, hg plugins are much easier to write (being in python and all), than messing around with git's internals imho (ala, facebook's modification to hg to make it massively scalable https://code.facebook.com/posts/218678814984400/scaling-merc..., which would've been almost impossible in git).
It's actually discouraging to see so many developers choose to work with something so problematic as Git, to be blunt.
It seems only natural to me that they should branch out. (heh... branch)
And then again, Hg repositories on _Git_ Hub?
https://help.github.com/articles/support-for-subversion-clie...
I tried using Mercurial on Kiln for private, personal projects. When I wanted some of those to graduate to public, GitHub projects it was a pain in the ass. So I switched to Git for all Kiln projects. And Kiln even has either/or magic.
Damn.