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Comment by agd | Hacker News Reader

Unfortunately it is the Eurogroup who are not willing to listen or compromise. The IMF reports (including one leaked today http://news.forexlive.com/!/imf-finally-says-what-they-think...) shows that Varoufakis was right all along and the debt is unsustainable, yet the Eurogroup does not listen and won't consider debt restructuring but wants to continue with the same failed and discredited policies.

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I agree. The Eurogroup's real final target in this whole thing is France. The Germans want France to change their culture (pensions, social system, etc), but France is too big a target to go for straight off the bat.

Varoufakis stated:

  "Based on months of negotiation, my conviction is that 
  the German finance minister wants Greece to be pushed out 
  of the single currency to put the fear of God into the 
  French and have them accept his model of a disciplinarian 
  eurozone."

Therefore they are playing the long game, and for that to work, Greece needs to capitulate and exit the Euro. The Eurogroup has tried to make it impossible for Greece to stay in the Euro, but Greece won't bite.

Once Greece do exit the Euro, the rest of Europe will see the incredible pain that is involved when your national banks have the rugs pulled out from underneath them.

Once France understands that they have to change or end up like Greece, they'll change. They'll have no choice.

It is an economic invasion at state level.

> The Germans want France to change their culture (pensions, social system, etc), but France is too big a target to go for straight off the bat.

France will leave the Eurozone before that happens. There's already discontent with the EU and Euro in France, nationalists rising, etc...

And they're a strong enough economy that leaving the Euro wouldn't leave them with worthless francs...

The undelying point Schauble is subtly trying to make is that you cannot switch back to an alternative currency without help from outsiders. Iraq needed US help, as was recently noted in the Guardian:

  "In occupied Iraq, the introduction of new paper money took almost a 
  year, 20 or so Boeing 747s, the mobilisation of the US military’s 
  might, three printing firms and hundreds of trucks. In the absence of 
  such support, Grexit would be the equivalent of announcing a large 
  devaluation more than 18 months in advance: a recipe for liquidating 
  all Greek capital stock and transferring it abroad by any means 
  available."

You think France could go back to the Franc without outside help? I highly doubt it. The point Schauble is trying to make is that if France wants to go the way of Greece, it would only involve lots and lots of pain. Abide by their rules, or else.

Of course they could. 6th largest economy on earth, with a functional banking system and plenty of resources at their disposal. They're not Iraq or Greece.

And guess what the far right will do if elected in france ?

France has been on a decline since many years. They are slowly de-industrialising, and there is no sign that this trend is going to revert any time soon. [1]

So either they get their act together, which will be very hard due to mentality and political culture, or it will get much worse before it gets better. If France falls, it will be the end of the Euro. Germany is trying to fix these issues, in order to save the historical project of the European Union. Saying that Germany is just economically invading Greece is dishonest, there are huge amounts of German (and other country's) taxpayer money involved. Most people have written them off already.

[1] http://www.acting-man.com/?p=32993

If the german try to push the French in the futur a bit to openly they will be blood on the wall. The ghost of ww2 is still there, we (the french) will go the absolute extreme measure if it look like we are threaten by germany (nukes + French Far Right = not good). So all of this need to be hidden to the public eye. And usually it is . But greece did not get that decency.

The hint is there in the article. The French know that Germany in gunning for them:

   “Only the French minister [Michel Sapin] made noises that
   were different from the German line, and those noises were 
   very subtle. You could sense he had to use very judicious 
   language, to be seen not to oppose. And in the final 
   analysis, when Dr Schäuble responded and effectively 
   determined the official line, the French minister would 
   always fold.”

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