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Bubble_Pop_22

109 karma · joined May 9, 2022

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Bubble_Pop_22··on The Netherlands may be the first country to hit the limits of growth
> Dubai

A grand total of 6 lines for all departing flights?

Bubble_Pop_22··on Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far
Social media are free because they act as a lubricant for commerce, especially e-commerce, via advertising. The whole freedom of speech thing, the public square, section 230 they are a bunch of distractions.

At the end of the day you gotta do what media entrepreneurs have always done: shove stuff down people's throats in exchange for money. That's it. There is nothing tough, poetic or ideological about it.

Twitter has been trying to monetize its users but they had scarce success. That was without an ideologue at the helm. Or an ideologue-lite when Dorsey was in charge.

With an ideologue at the helm the bird will fly right into the ground. Twitter needed somebody who knows how attract the crowd which buys stuff online. Paradoxically Bezos was the right fit for the bird app.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Welcome to Hell, Elon
> WeChat is essentially what Elon wanted x.com to become

Yeah that doesn't count. Stuff you don't do doesn't count.

Similarly with Tesla, legacy automakers will electrify the world. Being a cheerleader on the side doesn't count.

CEOs are people who sign off quality of life for the people who buy the products/services that the company they lead is selling. And that is all there is to it. There is nothing tough or poetic about it. Sane people are scratching their heads at how some people are falling for the cult of the founder which started with Jobs.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Elon Musk Texts Parag Agrawal
> but not impressive at all either.

The amount of consumption that Parag will be able to do with his golden parachute is very impressive tho.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Welcome to Hell, Elon
> Starlink alone will make more money than twitter ever could

In a world where people are increasingly living in urban areas, fiber will annihilate satellite internet.

Starlink is yet another niche thing which Musk is specialized in pursuing.

In fact all of Musck companies can be summarized with "everybody has heard of them in the financial and technology press, but not many people use them"

Bubble_Pop_22··on Ask HN: What is a good company for you?
Ok but Linux is not a company. They don’t understand that coders are people and have a variety of interests.

They want to pursue such interests via FIRE so Linux would have never worked.

DEC and IBM could have been the ones

Bubble_Pop_22··on Ask HN: What is a good company for you?
In one word: Microsoft

They put a PC on every desk, today was a slow day and I used at least a dozen flavors of Microsoft….all of them for free.

It’s also important to stress the free part, they don’t pursue piracy and just elect to recoup those losses by charging their Fortune 500 clients a bit more.

People will point out to the DOJ proceedings in 2000, but I have no sympathy for paper millionaires who didnt cash out in times of fat cows and didnt realize that software is a winner take all market. Even less sympathy for ideological people who want to impose their niche preferences over everybody else.

99% of people use computers to access informations , communicate with the world and to store/manipulate written or numerical data. Nobody makes all those 3 tasks easier than Microsoft.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Test scores are not irrelevant
No. Whatever your IQ you should aim high and let nature put you in your place.

you cannot pre-emptly put yourself in your place, that’s the best route for depression and depression sucks whether you have a high, normal or low IQ

Bubble_Pop_22··on Test scores are not irrelevant
> That said I prefer IQ over grades.

Why would any rational individual take an IQ test? IQ cannot be changed and whatever outcome doesn't change your course of action, being the fact that you have to work hard.

Low IQ: Gotta work hard

High IQ: Gotta work hard

Bubble_Pop_22··on Will the Unreal Engine 5 Realize the Metaverse’s Potential?
Grand Theft Auto V (and soon VI) the most definitely form of metaverse.

The “problem” is that Rockstar Games is based out of Edimburgh and New York. So they don’t have their ranks full of people who want to be thought leaders like everybody in the Valley.

So they will never come up with words like Metaverse like Zuck and you will never see Rockstar CEO becoming a cult leader like Musk.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Exposure to environmental toxins may be root of rise in neurological disorders
That's because unless you are certain about something you better shut up and leave others relying on their own intuition , because they have one too.
Bubble_Pop_22··on Elizabeth Holmes 'gave me gobbledygook answers' back in 2014
Nobody cares about the potential. People only care about a CEO as the person who signs off quality of life.

Musk has barely signed off anything, he's constantly postponing the moment when he'll sign off quality of life, but he's getting paid right now.

Today has been a slow day and I used the various different flavors of Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft so many times. They might not be a colony on Mars, but at least they are real.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Vladimir Putin says the world’s energy infrastructure is at risk
This is not the 1930s anymore. Just look at murder rates even in Russia.

People are much more satisfied/apathetic, they won't collectively risk their quality of life for a war.

The biggest predictor of mass violence (war) is your run of the mill daily violence (murders, revolts, terrorism etc), those are at historic minimums.

The second biggest predictor is trust in institutions, which also is at an all time low. This is especially true in Russia, but also in the West. The shelf life of a POTUS is basically 2-6 months, that's how long the approval rating stays above 50%.

By the time the 1st anniversary of inauguration comes around every POTUS from now on will be around 35-38%. That has never been the case ever.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Serena Williams on being a VC: 'Sometimes winning looks different'
Financial results pale in the face of brain juices being released.

I predict golf and poker will be the way to go for athletes of disciplines which have a short lived carrer.

Resolution and a direct enemy are essential in order not to get bored. The "market" doesn't provide resolution and cannot be seen as a direct enemy , more like an ethereal entity

Bubble_Pop_22··on Kanye West is buying Parler
> This is a community to talk about entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship is something you do for a living. A mean to get satisfaction and something you do to feel good.

You can have the best numbers but still be despised by the business community because of the way you act, and similarly nobody in the business community would trade places with you despite your amazing numbers because the way you act denotes mental illness. Money is worth nothing if you have mental illness.

It's exactly the case for Musk and West.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Serena Williams on being a VC: 'Sometimes winning looks different'
These people will become bored to death, that's why Tom Brady came back to the NFL at the cost of his marriage.

Sport provides resolution week in and week out. Either you win or you lose. Tennis being an individual sport is the prototypical scenario where the athlete provides said resolution via scoring a match point or failing to answer a match point

Bubble_Pop_22··on She’s Inheriting Millions. She Wants Her Wealth Taxed Away
> And talking as if one millionaire is going to clear the national debt! Come on bro.

Who said clearing? I said that if any millionaire or billionaire claims that they are not taxed enough, nobody is stopping them from paying what they think they should pay.

The IRS won't complain, and so won't the Treasury if they decide to donate money to pay a small % of the National Debt

Bubble_Pop_22··on She’s Inheriting Millions. She Wants Her Wealth Taxed Away
These people are just grandstanding. There is nothing preventing them from accidentally overpaying taxes to the tune of millions or even billions.

Or they could just send money to the Treasury to help pay the national debt which is an even more elegant solution.

The bank account and instructions are visible for all at TreasuryDirect.com

Bubble_Pop_22··on Even after $100B, self-driving cars are going nowhere
Lets cut the argument very short.

If Tesla or SpaceX were to disappear tomorrow nobody would experience any existential crisis.

If you disappeared Microsoft, Apple or Amazon or Walmart overnight the whole economy would come to a halt. Same for JPMChase,WellsFargo, BoA etc.

Musk is the first guy to reach the top of the Forbes list while being at the helm of an aspirational company, not one that is structurally important one in the present.

It’s a dangerous precedent, and in fact soon enough it was repeated when bitcoiners and owners of exchanges such as Coinbase and FTX reached the top 10 of the Forbes list.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Why There's No Such Thing as a Good Billionaire
Stop making this topic romantic and poetic. It’s just statistics.

Big ass sample (8bn individuals) and power law produces stuff like billionaires.

> fair

It’s not about fairness, people have been saying loud and clear that they can’s stand billionaires and the uber wealthy. They also been saying they want them out.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Prudential, General Electric, General Motors… they have been in the hands of pension funds forever, with the CEO taking a salary, and they have been working just fine.

If you diluted the whole Forbes 400 into oblivion or just transfered their shares to pension funds the companies they lead would go along just fine .

we know because there are countless examplers

Bubble_Pop_22··on Why There's No Such Thing as a Good Billionaire
I have met people with fortunes in the hundreds of millions (which is basically the same as billionaires) and rock stars and actors.

They are all just dudes, and I didn’t expect anything more than that because although I loved to party back in college I made sure to be sober for the lecture on Powers law.

As the sample gets bigger a layman observer can be fooled into thinking that subject x or y is special , whereas in reality it’s just a combination of a big sample and powers law doing its thing

Bubble_Pop_22··on Why There's No Such Thing as a Good Billionaire
A billionaire is just a guy who was piloting the plane during a flight which got a once in a lifetime 200mph tailwind.

Now idiots are convinced the pilot is special , wiseguys don’t believe in fairytales and they just look at the weather chart for that flight so that the truth becomes perfectly crystal clear.

That is all there is to it.

If playing roulette was as popular as business or hustling in general, (being played by 8bn people 24/7/365) you’d have billionaires roulette players too. Doesn’t mean they are special it’s just that with a sample that big somebody is bound to be benefiting from the 200mph tailwind

Bubble_Pop_22··on The Death of Intellectual Curiosity
intellectual curiosity doesnt keep you up with the Joneses, at least not immediately or maybe ever because the payoff is perhaps not there at all.

There are very few people who do stuff for the sake of doing stuff. If you are a volunteer you’d know because basically there is always a shortage of them, never once a volunteer has been turned down at least I never saw it

Bubble_Pop_22··on Why There's No Such Thing as a Good Billionaire
For the life of me I dont understand why society keeps them around.

It’s now clear that their existence is bothering people and causing them to have low morale due to wealth inequality and political cronysm + corruption

Once a company becomes a public company not to mention part of the sp500 you could dilute the founder or just transfer their shares to the big pension funds, install a new CEO and nothing would essentially change

Bubble_Pop_22··on Criticism of Apple
Luckiest company ever. They are alive today thanks to the DOJ.

in a sense Apple’s most succesful product which came right at the very best time to save the company was Windows 95.

Bubble_Pop_22··on ‘Unproductive' financial sector gobbling up our best? (2013)
It turns out the "best" love wide picture concepts such as predicting interest rates, recessions, GDP projections, natural resource shortage/abundance, large scale political and military outcomes influencing all the above etc..

And they also love being diversified and not tied to a single sector or asset so they can change allocation of the portfolio they manage according to all the aforementioned variables and their prediction about them..

Who'd have thought the "best" would love a global scale Poker game?

Bubble_Pop_22··on Parag Agrawal Texts Elon Musk
10M is fuck you money precisely because it's not imperative to live in SF
Bubble_Pop_22··on Parag Agrawal Texts Elon Musk
How many of these ventures fit the quadruple requirement of:

1) Being practical, not purely aspirational

2) Not burning more money than they make

3) Not constantly requiring capital raises

4) Not needing government subsides and corporate welfare

Musk is 50 and hasn't managed to light up all the 4 requirements at the same time. Enough with the BS. Especially here people should be skeptical because game recognizes game. In SV all the aspirational stuff is vaporware and BS. Mars, tunnels and brain comms. All BS.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Parag Agrawal Texts Elon Musk
Parag is right, it turns out people don't like the feeling of pissing in the ocean. So many don't even bother adding a pic or changing their assigned username.

What you and deluded Musk call "bots" are the same demographics which creates throwaways on Reddit and also on here just to answer a comment which enraged them.

It's logical, and also proven elsewhere. It always amazes me the logical leap that cult members are willing to go through in order to elevate the cult leader who can't do no wrong.

Bubble_Pop_22··on Parag Agrawal Texts Elon Musk
Depends on each individual personality.

For me that number could be around 100k because I have no problems overriding my passions in order to not deal with bullies BS.

For some people their passions are strong so they need a higher number.

For some unfortunate people there is no number and put up with bullies because some craft has penetrated their brain so much that they cannot stop doing it .

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