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CoffeeDregs

2,441 karma · joined June 28, 2010

http://www.hackernewsers.com/users/CoffeeDregs.html
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CoffeeDregs··on A Surprise AWS Bill
Agreed. Pricing transparency in healthcare has been wonderful for pricing (see The Atlantic's Fallow's article).

My point was that pricing transparency is not a panacea. It seemed that some people were reacting as though pricing transparency is a magical salve.

AWS: In my experience, AWS pricing has been transparent and great and they generally take steps to keep you from foot-gunning yourself. This article discusses a case in which the author foot-guns himself using a predictable mechanism AWS can't really prevent. I'm unsure of what else AWS could do to protect him from himself... (Anyone can throw out simple solutions without understanding S3's implementation complexity: they could seriously throttle their own product! ... but that might be seriously complicated and might hamper the value of the product to others. Besides, if you buy a M1A1 tank, you should be very careful about using it: it could use tons of fuel... He bought an M1A1, left the keys on the dash and then was surprised when he found got a huge fuel bill...).

CoffeeDregs··on A Surprise AWS Bill
Price transparency can harm prices. Competitors can use it as a mechanism to signal appropriate prices to each other in order to reduce pressure to reduce prices. It's highly industry/context specific but transparent pricing does not always mean better pricing. In fact, in limited contexts, price fixing can lead to better pricing.

I think Westinghouse was the big FTC price-transparency-can-be-bad case.

That's orthogonal to the post's issue, though: he paid exactly the price he was quoted for services rendered; that he didn't understand the services he was consuming isn't really Amazon's problem but it's great they jumped in to help a $0 account (which, of course, was self-serving)...

CoffeeDregs··on Giant flywheel project in Scotland could prevent UK blackouts
Agreed. I did a napkin-back calculation on a giant (50m diameter) grid-scale flywheel back in grad school in '95 (when there was talk of powering cars with them) and failures would have been catastrophic since the flywheel would dissipate all of the energy nearly immediately (in comparison to gasoline). A car powered by a flywheel (0.5m diameter) would have been a guided missile... Fortunately, grid-scale flywheels can be placed in out-of-the-way locations.
CoffeeDregs··on The fall of Quibi: how did a starry $1.75B Netflix rival crash so fast?
Disney bought BAMTech for this. Wasn't too much of a leap to expect that a giant content producer/owner (+ distributor) when combined with a huge content distributor would be successful...
CoffeeDregs··on Colin Kaepernick joins Medium board of directors
Per TFA: Kaepernick will be writing stories...
CoffeeDregs··on Amazon is sued over warehouses after New York worker brings coronavirus home
This is an excellent point and one I had not considered.

I'm generally anti-intervention but do strongly support the notion of driving diversity-of-business within markets. A common measure of market concentration is a sum of squares of market-share percentages (see: https://www.justice.gov/atr/herfindahl-hirschman-index). I'm not sure exactly what to do about this right now but I would suspect Amazon is a huge percentage of the distribution-to-the-home market so should be looked at closely. Their position could be good if they provide excellent Covid policies/procedures (and would be much worse to have a large diversity of participants with poor Covid P&Ps), but could be quite bad if people got scared of Amazon and effectively shutdown-by-virtue-of-disuse a large percentage of the distribution infrastructure in the US...

CoffeeDregs··on Two capacitor paradox
Got this question in an interview at National Semiconductor (out of MSEE school). I didn't think it was too paradox-y: we didn't work the math through fully but my answer of "start with the circuit with a resistor with value R and the energy will burn up in R; now recalculate as R→0 and the energy will still burn up in R (even though R is zero-y...". That seemed to satisfy the interviewer (who had not heard that answer before).
CoffeeDregs··on SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019
Does lethality after the contagious period matter? Doesn't seem that there would be any selective pressure if the host (and its extant, too lethal viruses) perishes...
CoffeeDregs··on Editors believed their magazines could change lives
And they were right. Since magazines are just the TVs of the 1940-1970s, they effectively changed our lives by offering us glimpses of the Kardashians, Trump, Miley Cyrus, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Carl Sagan, FoxNews/MSNBC, SlapChop, etc. Media has always said it'd be a force for good (and I'm sure it intended to do so)...
CoffeeDregs··on Apple releases new Covid-19 app and website based on CDC guidance
Didn't know that Apple was working on this. I'm not a huge Apple fan but they certainly did the right thing by not telling Trump (of whom I'm neither a fan nor a hater) or by having a strong NDA to cover the work so that it couldn't be announced...
CoffeeDregs··on Zoom needs to clean up its privacy act
Title is sort of incorrect: "Zoom needs to clean up its privacy act" should be "Zoom needs not to do stupid shit"...

I'm a fan of the product but this is ridiculous behavior (great Linux support). I have a hard time imagining the product meeting in which "Yes. That's a good idea. Let's do it." was said. I get that FB is big, that Zoom wants the credibility, etc but that's a sign that management is not thinking clearly about their product and should be a red flag to any investor (among the many green flags from current demand)...

CoffeeDregs··on Beer distribution game
Forrester came in to teach SysDyn (2004) and went over the wheel-of-real-estate. Eye-opening. Definitely a humble, nice guy.

Contract info is in my profile. Drop a line and we can grab 6-foot-distance coffee!

CoffeeDregs··on Beer distribution game
Ha! Same here. Almost started an IAP session with Senge to let people play it multiple times (with varying demand curves) because it seemed to have a lot of exploration left...
CoffeeDregs··on Covid-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
Any comments on the following? Serious? useful? Garbage? https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/03/19/china-owns-natur...
CoffeeDregs··on How I Start: Rust
Love seeing more Rust. It's good stuff.

    extern crate rocket;
I thought "extern crate XYZ" was old-style? "use XYZ"?
CoffeeDregs··on Finding a problem at the bottom of the Google stack
This is a fun read but should read as a description of a fairly common method of developing products and remediating "deviations". A lot of words are spent on describing what is essentially a root-cause-analysis (see GxP, ISO 9000, fishbone diagram). Hopefully, you thought "check", "check", "check", as you read it.

If you thought "couldn't Bob of shimmed it with a block of plywood?", you might want to read up on continuous-improvement. Have Bob put the shim in to fix the problem right quick, then start up the continuous improvement engine...

CoffeeDregs··on Alcoholics Anonymous vs. other approaches: the evidence is now in
This is a significantly-incorrect, surface-level understanding of the "Sinclair Method". As another poster noted, naltrexone (or similar) prevent one from feeling much of anything from alcohol (though you'd still be physically impaired...). Without any dose (drink) --> response (pleasant-feeling) relationship, users tend to stop drinking significantly (because drinking doesn't really do anything)...

The "Sinclair Method" is, basically, to promise to take naltrexone (or similar) 30 minutes or so before you ever take a drink. That way, if/when you drink, you never feel the "drink" and your mind can return to normal.

No drug will "make you stop drinking" (though disulfiram may make you want to do so); the Sinclair Method attempts to remove your interest in drinking.

CoffeeDregs··on Apt 2.0
Argh. Was just upgrading a Debian machine and was wishing (again) for parallel downloads. apt-fast is a severely limited hack (I couldn't figure out what it actually supports). I assumed any significant apt update would include performance/DL improvement. No?
CoffeeDregs··on AWS’s Elastic Load Balancer is a Strangler
Didn't know that ALBs could front Lambdas... Will be so happy to be able to be rid of APIGW...
CoffeeDregs··on A Sad Day for Rust
While I much appreciate Steve's work on Rust, this does seem a little high on drama and low on substance. Rust really does seem to be a nice language and here for the long haul so bumps in the road are opportunities for improvement rather than moments to sow seeds of doubt. From the link title, I thought that someone had died or that Rust was fundamentally broken, but:

- The internet will be the internet and that's, unfortunately, here to stay.

- Being a maintainer can be a less than thankless job and that's a bummer but also a fact.

- Reddit can be toxic, news at 11.

I had assumed that 'unsafe' was a rarely used aspect of the language (as it is in Haskell and as duck-punching is in Python). It seems necessary (to me). It might be used more often than it should be? Hmm. Okay a little unsafe-coverage tool should allow for quick assessment. Of course, FFI libraries will be heavy on unsafe but use them at your own risk...

All successful software projects pass through previously-small-problem-becomes-big-problem stages ("Argh. Looks like it's time to move from Pivotal to JIRA..."). I don't find Steve's melodramatic response to an opportunity to "level-up" to be particularly helpful.

I do think it'd be great to have an unsafeness analyzer (if there isn't one already) and to expose those values in cargo.rs. And to follow other safeness-flag recommendations in this discussion. Were those in-place or in-flight, most of TFA would have been "the internet has driven away the maintainer of a good project and that's not good".

CoffeeDregs··on Centrifugal Machine Guns
Sure but it takes quite a bit of energy per shot. A fairly standard 7.62mmx51mm NATO shell puts out a bullet with about 4000 Joules of energy. That's roughly a 0.4F, 100V capacitor or 2,000 200uF, 100V capacitors (around $2,500) _per shot_. 20 rounds means that the gun has around $50k worth of capacitors and that's before we start talking about rapid-discharge/charge rate systems and energy transport.

Once the electrical rail machine gun is built, the per-shot costs are pretty low (copper, lead, machining) and grid supplied energy (hello supply-lines), but then a 7.62x51mm NATO round is $0.42 (in volume).

The rail guns that being trialed are monsters: not a whole lot of point in shooting a $0.42 NATO round when you have nuclear power generator to recharge the gun. By the same token, there's probably not a whole lot of point spending $100k per soldier to kit them with a barely portable weapon that is matched by a $2,000 AR-15 firing $0.42 mass-produced ammunition with a mature supply line and easy portability.

But, yeah, I'd like to see them, too...

CoffeeDregs··on China gene-edited baby experiment 'may have created unintended mutations'
Looks as if you're receiving a decent number of downvotes (I upvoted) for expressing some truthiness mixed with too much vitriol.

>Who cares about unintended consequences if you're >the first person to study them? Everyone with a sense of ethics, morals and humanity. But that's an answer to a useless question. Are the expected costs of unintended, likely or allowed consequences less than the expected benefits? If so, then states and societies will press ahead as was done with nuclear weapons, bio-weapons, aircraft, rocketry, etc. With exploration comes understanding and sets of ethics for each were developed to guide those inventions.

>China gets to deal with a novel problem Maybe. I don't think we have 100% certainty that positive results will ever be obtained. Millions of years of evolution have not eliminated harmful mutation from reproduction: mutation has been reduced to a low enough level to allow ongoing propagation (birth defects) and survival (cancer) but is certainly not as low as (Western human-judged) ethical and moral values would like.

>China will get novel rewards eventually >because the west let itself get soft My inclination is to agree with the sentiment (if not the vitriol) of your statement but I'm wavering a bit as I learn more about the complexity and messiness. Of course, the US "pushed" ethical and moral bounds when exploring nuclear technology, chemical warfare, bio warfare, missile technologies, etc. Some of those turned out to be existential threats and loosening ethical and moral values might have been warranted by guaranteeing the existence of our society. But most of them turned out not to be existential threats but instead reasonably nice long-term economic benefits.

While I don't think every child should get-a-trophy-for-participation, I'm not sure we should loosen our ethical and moral standards to pursue genetic engineering. A legit question is: other states will pursue genetic engineering aggressively and how do we respond?

And the result is likely not binary: winning this race does not produce world domination; winning is likely a temporary (10-50 year?), slight technological advantage. Even serious existential threats, such as nuclear weapons, were leaked and duplicated by competing states. And those were rare, easily identifiable items (big atomic or nuclear bombs). Exfiltrating a key genetic engineering masterpiece can be done invisibly with a comb or razor in a checked-bag...

And being a second-mover can be a huge advantage. Just ask Japan (PHS), Africa (mobile-first/only), Hong Kong (cable internet), Chattanooga (utility internet), etc. First movers can over-invest in being the first mover and suffer when advantages of scale, learning or technology kick in. The "center" of the tech world (Silicon Valley) had the worst Internet service in the developed world; but we had the best 1970's phone and cable service on the planet.

CoffeeDregs··on Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true
In the US? You should have been able to get heavily subsidized health insurance (which is a hassle), unemployment, etc. Still crappy but it's not $0.

But that's exactly my point: it's very difficult to discuss this when policy is such a swirl.

CoffeeDregs··on Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true
> The bottom of the ladder is the unemployed, who make $0/h.

If government programs are included, the unemployed definitely don't "make" $0/hour. As is often pointed out, taxpayers are effectively funding the underpayment of workers Walmart, McDonalds, etc because of government subsidies.

I don't have a dog in this hunt but the issue is much too complicated by government action to say unequivocally that the unemployed "make" $0. I'm not sure if it's good or bad but I definitely lean toward "we've made it too complicated".

[Now I'll go back to sorting through baffling health insurance complexity...]

CoffeeDregs··on Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true
I consider myself a fairly educated fence-squatter on this topic but I think it's too early to tell and any assessment is highly confounded by our central bank's actions. That said, I have talked with SF restaurateurs and they're very concerned (but this, too, is confounded by the "SF Employee Mandate" and by the effect of the tradewar on China's funding of US trade tourism (group reservations at SF restaurants are trending way down))...
CoffeeDregs··on Vikrum Nijjar: Engineer #1 at Firebase and Founder of Gold Fig Labs (YC S19)
Agreed^2. Grab a highly qualified, talented person in India or Australia (or wherever is +12ish) from TopTal: solve the [first level] overnight issue, use them and onshore talent to drive the process of improving security and documentation while saving $$$, moving to supporting a global talent pool and improving the life of an offshore worker. Seems like a no-brainer to me (as long as the costs incurred are recaptured as benefits to the system/organization). Why would you tire and distract a _core_ contributor?
CoffeeDregs··on Flying-V: Flying long distances energy-efficiently
That's a nifty idea: put all the fuel and luggage out towards the wings and the passengers down the center. No more discomfort for passengers (during turns and turbulence) and you'd still reap the benefits of the BWB design. Though this would block window views...
CoffeeDregs··on Flying-V: Flying long distances energy-efficiently
This is the umpteenth commercial flying wing we've seen and none every fly. Perhaps this time will be different...

MIT also came up with D8 or double bubble (see: https://www.nasa.gov/content/the-double-bubble-d8-0) but that, too, was 9 years ago

It certainly seems as though we're stuck in a local minima w.r.t. commercial aircraft.

CoffeeDregs··on Google Just Gave 2B Chrome Users a Reason to Switch to Firefox
I've sort of switched: mobile is FF; desktop is Chrome. The thing that still gets me with both is that memory usage is -insane- and I cannot figure out why it is so high. After a few days of usage I'll close all but one tab and will have a 4+GB process.

Thank you to FF for maintaining AdBlocking but memory usage needs love, too.

CoffeeDregs··on Propofol-induced deep sedation reduces emotional episodic memory reconsolidation
Interestingly, you're probably awake for more than 3 seconds but experience propofol-amnesia. At least, I did: I spoke with my surgeon in post-op (and said embarrassing things) and he shared with me some other embarrassing things I'd said after I "blacked out" (count back from 10).

The amnesia was considered a benefit because it's not the case that you want to remember everything that happens immediately before surgery...

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