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D_Alex

1,790 karma · joined August 18, 2010

Oil and gas industry, Perth, Western Australia. Contactable via milanoman@yahoo.com (note I only check this e-mail once a week).
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D_Alex··on How to waste time and overcomplicate things
Man... I clicked on the link and skimmed the headings... for a moment I was convinced this will be about geopolitics.
D_Alex··on Life Improvements Since the 1990s
Brushless motors, variable speed controls on everything, keyless chucks... new tools such as 3D printer... or this:

https://www.shapertools.com/en-us/

D_Alex··on The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
Presumably also the human species had time to co-evolve some resistance to these illnesses. I shudder to think at the cost... hundreds of millions of lives for smallpox alone...
D_Alex··on The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
I agree with everything you wrote, however - when we bet, we need to consider the stakes and the payoff.

So the important question is: should "we" take the bet on that immunity escape? Or should we not take that chance?

My opinion is that we should act decisively to avoid the bet.... but the UK government clearly feels lucky.

D_Alex··on The Law of Net Design Costs
After reading the article, I am not sure what "the law of net design costs" actually is.

Is it "there is no substitute for judgement"??

D_Alex··on Sundar Pichai warns of threats to internet freedom
It seems pretty clear that Google has made their search worse to sell more ads.
D_Alex··on Seasonal energy storage in aluminium for 100% solar heat and electricity supply
What if we move the aluminium smelters to Sahara?
D_Alex··on Why inflation is not a threat
Unfortunately higher inflation comes with higher interest rates. So if you have "negative wealth" you are no better off.
D_Alex··on Scientists grow bigger monkey brains using human genes, replicating evolution
>Say these monkeys were intelligent enough...

Great questions, we will need some good answers soon. Not so much for the monkeys, but for AI.

D_Alex··on Scientists grow bigger monkey brains using human genes, replicating evolution
Um... Taras Bulba really should not be quoted in support of "responsibility"...
D_Alex··on Helsinki Relocation Package: City as a Service
>a little less than half of German losses where on the eastern front

Where did you get this from? According to Wikipedia, and most other sources, 70-80% of German military casualties were on the Eastern Front.

>The US footed a lot of the material costs needed for Europe and the USSR to stay in the fight...

More than 80% of the aid to USSR was delivered after the Battle of Stalingrad was won by the USSR, and the outcome of the war was pretty much settled.

>the USSR played a significant role

...far greater than what you are suggesting.

D_Alex··on Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response
OTOH, a large number of infected people means a large pool of viruses to mutate into potentially re-infective strains.
D_Alex··on Let's Build a Can Stirling Engine (2000)
You could certainly run such an engine, very efficiently at that, from vaporisation of LNG.
D_Alex··on Patrick Collison's Questions
It is 95%, not 100%... and amazingly that looks accurate.

As an example, a 32" CRT with remote control (eg Sony Trinitron) cost about $1500-2000 back in 1997.

Today, you can buy a 32" TV for $85, delivered. And even though this will be "Brand X" and not Sony, it will have better picture quality, more functionality, be more reliable and use less power to boot.

D_Alex··on Modeling a Wealth Tax
Not sure what you mean by much poorer... in any case here is a list of European countries which have a higher median wealth per adult than the US, roughly in order of wealth per adult:

Switzerland, Iceland, Luxmbourg, Belgium, Ireland, France, UK, Spain, Austria, Italy, Malta, Norway.

If you go by mean wealth on the other hand, only Switzerland is higher than the US. But that is not a measure of middle class wealth.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe...

D_Alex··on Boom supersonic jet readies for rollout
Heaps of links in these comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19842240
D_Alex··on Concorde ‘B’ (2014)
A380 has zero hull losses and zero fatalities.
D_Alex··on Slate Star Codex must remain anonymous
What a nasty little article. Reeks of petty malice. And from someone who claims he's interested in "being a good person".
D_Alex··on On Cultures That Build
And yet, Chinese workers earn way less, but they are building like crazy.

No, it's not money, it's something else. "Build Culture" is a good name for it, whatever it is.

D_Alex··on Model S Long Range Plus: Building the First 400-Mile Electric Vehicle
Or: Work = Force * Distance, so the energy spent per mile will be proportional to drag force, which is proportional to speed^2.

Either way, its 21% increase in energy consumed per mile in this case.

D_Alex··on Engineers find neat way to turn waste carbon dioxide into useful material
By golly, I agree! And I would agree even if I wasn't working on technology to achieve this.

Unfortunately, the article does not say how the zinc oxide nanoparticles will help with being able to use solar/wind power to produce syngas.

In fact it is not clear how these nanoparticles could actually be used to make an industrial catalyst. Current catalysts also use nanoparticles - on a substrate with enormous surface area/volume ratio, but these nanoparticles are created on that substrate.

I am curious about what the researchers plan as the next step.

D_Alex··on The US Army's earth-shaking, off-road land trains
Speaking of "low ground pressure' vehicles: if you have not seen it before, take a look at the Sherp!

https://sherpatv.com/

D_Alex··on The US Army's earth-shaking, off-road land trains
So, in my industry, moving 10,000 tonne loads is routine(-ish).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wp41alE8Mg

D_Alex··on Elon Musk reopening Tesla factory despite Alameda County order
>that means that LOCKDOWN_COVID19_MORTALITY_REDUCTION - LOCKDOWN_EXTERNALITIES >= 20 million wellbeing-years.

Absolutely wrong. And you are missing:

- lockdown reduction in suffering, due both to the acute phase of the disease and after effects

- No-lockdown-externalities, including damage to the economy if the disease is allowed to spread through the entire population

And perhaps most importantly:

- the risk that a huge reservoir of infected people will lead to repeat waves caused by mutations, and even worse that cross-species infection occurs (we already know cats and dogs can be infected - pigs and poultry could be next); then we risk flu-like antigenic shifts.

Put all this into the equation and I think the only thing we should be contemplating is how to eradicate the virus as soon as possible.

D_Alex··on The Dystopian, Post-Lockdown World of Wuhan
Must-read article for people in charge of "re-opening" of Europe and US states!

The extent of the measures taken to prevent further infections and the re-emergence of the epidemic are truly eye-opening.

D_Alex··on The epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy
I agree. It seems extraordinarily risky to let another disease spread among the world population.

- What if there are long term effects?

- What if it becomes a seasonal disease?

- What if the next mutation is more severe?

Each country should b a good global citizen, and put in its best effort to make sure the spread is as limited as possible.

D_Alex··on I tried to buy an actual barrel of crude oil (2015)
ALL wells, including the "very cheap wells" are easy to shut in, by design. It is an essential safety feature, mandated by all relevant codes, rules and regulations.

SOME wells can be a little difficult to restart after a shut-in. This includes, for example, offshore wells which extract waxy crude - the crude can simply solidify in the pipe if allowed to cool down to ambient temperature. See link below. This is usually not a big problem for a planned shutdown, as the facility will take measures to prevent such a situation (eg flush the pipes with diesel right after shutdown).

I suspect the problem might be more difficult with some pipelines, as these may be impractical to flush.

https://www.khavaranparaffin.com/articles/161-wax-problems-i...

D_Alex··on Crimson Contagion
Since you want to discuss, and clearly looked into this:

I do not agree on any single one of your numbered points.

1) "eradication is not possible" just does not follow from "this is a highly transmissible respiratory virus". "Eradication will be difficult" follows; but several countries have shown us that "eradication is entirely possible if proper measures are taken"

2) The purpose of lockdowns is to eradicate the virus. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea...

3) See 1.

So my position is that eradication is possible, and - given the possibility of multiple waves if the virus becomes endemic (large virus population --> increased chances of dangerous mutations) - it is vital that we give it a really good try.

The discussion should re-focus on how we go about eradicating the virus, while minimizing the damage to the economy. This article outlines an appropriate path forward: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-th...

D_Alex··on The field of “useful reals” between rational and real numbers (2019)
If you look at the integers between say Graham's number (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham%27s_number) and TREE3(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kruskal%27s_tree_theorem) you can observe that practically all of these integers, while "computable", cannot be defined within the known constraints of this universe.

Which raises an interesting question: In what meaningful sense do these numbers exist? They are just out of reach as the non-definable real numbers...

D_Alex··on The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War
>pushing wealth out of their country. (Balance of payment in negative, it is right?.)

No...if balance of payment is negative, that means they are pushing money out of the country. Presumably there is a corresponding flow of goods inward, so the "wealth" does not change as such.

The imported goods may of course be consumed (e.g. Swiss chocolate, movies), or put to productive use (e.g. a lathe, education), or just stored (e.g. gold).

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