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DaveZale

1,020 karma · joined August 20, 2022

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DaveZale··on Poor Charlie's Almanack
So stunning to see his "100 models of the world" and hints about superintelligence being interdisciplinary. Almost like he was anticipating powerful AIs.

I could not read some of his talks, but most of the text was very clearly thought out, and time-tested over decades of stunning success. He lived his advice of staying within the boundaries of what he understood well.

DaveZale··on Mysterious quantum computing restrictions spread across multiple nations (2024)
there seems to be a there, there.

So if quantum computing is expected to be that powerful, what will happen to the trillions pouring into old-tech data centers?

Anyone else get the feeling that something doesn't add up here? Just what nonpublic evidence is behind these decisions to ban the new tech?

DaveZale··on Poor Charlie's Almanack
excellent idea to read this at year ending/ year beginning ... the local library had a copy in ebook format.

So Charlie almost went blind in the 1950s, then went on to live many decades more, with amazing success. Ben Franklin and then some.

DaveZale··on NOAA deploys new generation of AI-driven global weather models
how about working with Weather Underground to validate predicted weather at ground level? Here in Southern CO would be a perfect place to try this. Weather Underground has thousands of volunteer backyard weather stations, including mine.

I understand that aviation safety is certainly a primary concern for NWS/NOAA but ground level forecasts are also very important for public safety.

DaveZale··on AI romance blooms as Japanese woman weds virtual partner of her dreams
the silicone embodiments can't be too far off. Will they come with a complimentary solar panel to replenish their juice?
DaveZale··on Rivian Will Add Lidar in 2026, Says Tesla's Cameras Aren't Enough
Sadly, Morgan Stanley suggests that the release of this information may result in invoking the "Osbourne Effect." Osbourne Computer, decades ago, released information about a great new future model. This resulted in customers refraining from buying the current Osbourne model, resulting in steep losses and bankruptcy. Not to say bankruptcy will happen to Rivian, but many customers may refrain from buying the current R1 model, and instead opt for the future R2 model, which may result in a bad quarter or two for Rivian. FWIW. Rivian seems to have amazing technology in the works, but investors may be in for a bumpy ride until a successful R2 rollout ... according to Morgan Stanley (which may be conflicted by their business with Tesla).
DaveZale··on So, about this AI thing
“a data center full of GPUs is like a warehouse full of bananas, that’s got a relatively short half life in terms of its usefulness.”

Anyone else know the history of the canal system in the US state of Indiana? The State got sunk so heavily into debt building so many soon-to-be-obselete canals, that they ended up passing a balanced budget amendment.

Another reason to be skeptical about current computing technologies, is the potential of quantum computing. Much about the quantum world can only be understood using matrix math, so intuitively, quantum computers may be ideally suited for AI applications which also rely on matrix math. If I am oversimplifying this, please chime in.

DaveZale··on Misinformation is an inevitable biological reality across nature
It's very harsh to learn this after earning a couple science degrees and working in analytical and research environments where little "bullshitting" is done, although obviously those doing the selling, getting funding, seeking to get hired or promoted, can't avoid some degree of self-promotion as a necessary evil. But now, shameless self promotion and deception tends to be the rule, especially in online marketing, political posturing... we all know it very well now. Anything to get more eyeballs on the screen, better metrics. Of course we were all raised on television advertising, and now we are dealing with an obesity crisis due to heavily promoted junk food, so now, very expensive weight loss drugs are promoted heavily. First some ads make us sick, then others come to our rescue, in that perspective. What Charles Hugh Smith calls, burning the village to save the village. Downvote away, it won't hurt me a bit.
DaveZale··on The Great Cholesterol Scam and the Dangers of Statins
it's a thoughtful discussion, but why bring Covid vaccines into it?

My ldl-c numbers are lower than my wife. We both are in the top few percent of the population for exercise measured in weekly steps. I don't take statins, she does. But her numbers have been going up, while mine have been dropping. I get more fiber though. Clearly, statin therapy is questionable based on this small sample size.

midwesterndoctor, please don't mix arguments

DaveZale··on Why Your TV Will Probably Never Be Better Than It Is Now
gotcha ty! This may explain all the antennae in the rural areas near here... I thought they were all HAM operators, but maybe only some are... in any case, it's great to be prepared for ... whatever ...
DaveZale··on Rivian Autonomy and AI Day
you'll see within weeks

they've been working in secret. watch the presentation

The common stock price is heavily manipulated. Maximum pain theory in options applies. Be careful but the dips are a good place to carefully buy.

DaveZale··on Rivian Autonomy and AI Day
Rivian has extremely fast custom chips incorporating LIDAR data. Sounds like Musk needs to focus on his job more in some areas. Rivian may be the safest autonomy bet in the world. TSMC makes the chips. The LIDAR is almost unnoticeable on the outside of the vehicle.
DaveZale··on Is your website Archive Ready?
one of mine is https://archiveready.com/check?url=https%3A%2F%2F100daysofli...

low score... so? what do I do?

DaveZale··on The Bubble Is Labor
Also missing is the fact that sweetheart deals are made between govt and large employers to place employees in their location. Likewise with tariffs (if you love them or hate them, it doesn't matter) - some new labor demand is inevitable, even if it's mostly robotics folks. Nothing wrong with the author, just missing some nuances.
DaveZale··on Scientists Look to Ancient Microbes to Discover the Antibiotics of the Future
they need a good lc/ms chemist
DaveZale··on The oldest evidence of people starting fires
so that's how modern Europeans ended up with a few percent of Neanderthal DNA. Cozy campfires. /s
DaveZale··on Pompeii of the Midwest
I believe that elimination of mangrove stands in southern areas can also be devastating. Very good read, I am from the area and never heard of this
DaveZale··on Why Your TV Will Probably Never Be Better Than It Is Now
thanks! Mine normally uses its connection from one day to the next. Okay then, I'll just leave it be.

Antenna works good enough for the 3 PBS channels I like, even though their antenna is 50 miles away. Just one of those cheap $30 rabbit ears. What's interesting is that the signal bounces off a south wall,through the N patio door, so when anyone moves in the path, the signal is garbled. Also, depending on the station, it must sometimes be repositioned. I enjoy the retro feel of that.

DaveZale··on Replican't
MIT just built a prototype of this, from what little I understand
DaveZale··on Why Your TV Will Probably Never Be Better Than It Is Now
my favorite features on a sub-$200 Roku:

1. It accepts antenna input 2. It accepts usb input 3. It accepts dvd/cd input

But the streaming is so strewn with ads, it's unbearable

DaveZale··on Is OpenAI Today's Netscape? Or Is It AOL?
can't "effectuate" ?

Not sure about that. A few days ago, a post showed how a guy tricked the ai into shooting him with a BB gun. Was it real, or clickbait?

https://www.gamepressure.com/newsroom/chatgpt-gladly-shoots-...

DaveZale··on Hegseth: Today, we are unleashing GenAI.mil
I searched my brave browser ai and got the same link and error.

Other articles are available like on thefederalist.com

https://thefederalist.com/2025/12/09/hegseth-ai-autonomous-w...

DaveZale··on Real power is deciding when to step down
https://www.removepaywall.com/search?url=https://www.bloombe...
DaveZale··on Twins reared apart do not exist
does epigenetics play a significant role? Within one lifetime or several generations?
DaveZale··on Twins reared apart do not exist
okay, I saw the paper saying 500 genes are involved. So does a single number for iq mean anything? Does the number depend upon what is tested?
DaveZale··on Twins reared apart do not exist
iq is "polygenetic" with the consensus estimates at 50-80% based on genes

success has components of luck as in "right place, right time" for someone with the right qualities and connections, and many of the very successful are quick to admit this

I am a 3rd generation machinist along the paternal line, and although the machines I operate are in expensive labs, those my father and grandfather operated were probably just as challenging. Engineering also seems to often run in the family. How much is nature and nuture? "It varies" is a safe response

DaveZale··on Wash Post: "Trump's Attack on DEI May Hurt College Men, Particularly White Men"
gender wars! Count me out... there is toxicity on both sides. Glad I am not dating
DaveZale··on Exercise-induced extracellular vesicles increase adult hippocampal neurogenesis
a picture that summarizes https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8998961/figure/ijms...

strength vs hypertrophy training

DaveZale··on Exercise-induced extracellular vesicles increase adult hippocampal neurogenesis
it's a fascinating subject- last I heard, 2000 of these exist

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=myokines

DaveZale··on Building a magical stock market orb
really neat!

But over the past couple of decades, HFTs and dark pools have arisen to manipulate prices of common stock to accomodate large clients/orders.

Options prices, especially leaps, may provide a better indicator. This is the space where the hedge funds make billions while the "retail" crowd agonizes over mysterious fluctuations in common stock prices. Like the arrow in the Fedex logo, once you see it, you'll always see it ;-)

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